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Blue Trend #2

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August 3, 2022 3:31 p.m.

Another probabilistic nugget. As of today, the polls-only version of the 538 Senate forecast has 52 Democratic seats as the most likely outcome of the election. That’s enough to pass a Roe law in January 2023 if Democrats hold the House. The House is almost certainly the bigger challenge at this point. But the two equation is firmly locked together. House candidates need the Senate pledges completely nailed down to run on Roe and Reform in their races, even though the filibuster itself has nothing to do with the House.

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