We’ve slowly come around to a given that Joe Biden is very unpopular but that in the peculiar politics of 2022 it simply doesn’t matter. A few weeks ago I told a friend that I expected Biden’s approval numbers to surge from just under 40% to about 45% after the mini-BBB (aka, Inflation Reduction Act) passed. After that, I told this person it was less clear. Why? A lot of Biden’s unpopularity was tied Democratic partisans who were pissed off that he wasn’t successful enough as a Democrat. That’s how you can have Biden flatlining while Democrats are doing pretty well on the generic ballot poll and in lots of Senate races. Pass the mini-BBB, pass the CHIPS bill, get some good news on economic outlook and you can expect his support among Democrats to rise fairly quickly. It’s low-hanging fruit.
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