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From TPM Reader LS …

I’m going to take a localized view, a Midland, Michigan view. I’m seeing everyday people questioning the lurch to the right by the Republican party. Governor Rick Snyder, not perfect, still too conservative for me, is looking better and better these days. His brand of Republicanism is much more attractive than straight Tea Party. He keeps talking about how to improve Detroit. He’s opposing crony capitalism in the form of promoting a new bridge connecting Detroit and Windsor. And as you reported, he refused to sign the most recent voter restriction law. (Michigan already had mandatory ID at the polls.) I’m seeing a split in the Republican party, between the scorched-earth types and the more constructive ones. At least in Michigan, the constructive ones seem to be gaining momentum.

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The Arizona Birtherpalooza originally scheduled for later this month has been canceled. Nick Martin explains why.

Let me stipulate to all the caveats right up front, put them behind me and then jump right in.

It’s quite possible that Barack Obama will be reelected president in two months with more or less the same the number of states he won in 2008. A plausible outcome (remember the caveats) would the the 2008 states minus Indiana and North Carolina. Without Indiana would be 354 electoral votes. Without North Carolina too would be 339. Read More

Everybody’s talking about the Obama bounce coming off the Democratic convention. But look at this chart after the jump … Read More

All the caveats. But it looks like we may have a run on Romney on Intrade.

As I’ve mentioned a couple times now, it’s been a cardinal doctrine of the Romney campaign that the Republican convention was the break out moment. We can be pretty certain now that didn’t happen. Obama’s bounce could evaporate. But Romney didn’t get a game-changing moment. Read More

Obama jumps to 6 point lead in new CNN poll. One week ago CNN had the two candidates tied.

Romney pollster Neil Newhouse has put out a new memo telling fretting supporters not to worry, it’s all good. “While some voters will feel a bit of a sugar-high from the conventions, the basic structure of the race has not changed significantly,” he writes. But that’s kind of a problem since Romney’s been losing basically for the entire year. And the convention was supposed to be the fabled Romney campaign unicorn. Sarlin and Leighton have the story.