Just a quick exercise here. Just about all the major polling outfits have spoken today. So I just wanted to take a quick overview. This mixes tracking poll dailies and full polls. It also includes Internet polls we report at PollTracker but do not compute in our averages. But two days out it’s interesting to look at the snapshot it shows us. Read More
From an article just out from Politico …
If President Barack Obama wins, he will be the popular choice of Hispanics, African-Americans, single women and highly educated urban whites. That’s what the polling has consistently shown in the final days of the campaign. It looks more likely than not that he will lose independents, and it’s possible he will get a lower percentage of white voters than George W. Bush got of Hispanic voters in 2000.
A broad mandate this is not.
As I’ve written many times before, the second rate product. If this is a subject that interests you, I’d encourage you to read the piece I linked right there.
Or to be more specific, Obama’s winning but not with the best votes. I mean really, if you can’t win with a broad cross-section of white people, can you really be said to represent the country? Really.
I’ve seen Republicans in Blue states (and vice versa) play up how they get along with the President of the other party. But I don’t think I’ve ever seen a major candidate actualy sending around flyers or doorhangers and actually say ‘Hey, vote for me and Obama, it’ll be awesome.’ But that’s exactly what Linda McMahon is doing in Connecticut. You’ve got to see this.
I love the last few days of campaigning. So much of artifice and pretense is stripped away from the candidates and their campaigns. Whatever it takes to win. Consistent messaging, careful massaging of constituencies, and all the rest of it be damned.
Now is when you get things like a Republican Senate candidate urging black voters to vote for her and Obama.
The new Polltracker charts are out. The latest snapshots in all the key national races. Give ’em a taste.
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It’s not clear to me that it will affect the final outcome in the presidential race. But let’s note that the dogged efforts of Republican governors in a number of key states to dramatically limit early voting is starting to pay dividends. This is qualitatively different from the standard voter suppression efforts Republicans have focused on. No state has to have early voting. Here in New York, supposedly one of the progressive states in the country, there’s none. But the intent of curtailing early voting systems that were already in place is clear: limit the amount of people who end up voting. Particularly, limit the number of Democrats who vote since Democrats are disproportionately the people who take advantage of early voting.
The last national Pew poll before the election is out now.
This tweet from Ari Fleischer …
Prediction Time:1) The election won’t end Tuesday night. 7 states will b decided by 1 pt or less. (VA, OH, CO, IA, PA, WI, NH)
— Ari Fleischer (@AriFleischer) November 4, 2012