Can you spare us a moment? We are now 448 sign ups away from 16,000 Prime members. Can you take the plunge now? Just click here. Thank you so much.
For days Donald Trump has been banging this gong about being ahead in the IBD/TIPP poll which he says was the most accurate poll in 2012. They’re now claiming it was also the most accurate in 2008 and 2004. This has been driving me a bit nuts since this is unquestionably false. I decided to check my memory. So I went back to look the latest polls in 2012. Here’s what I found.
Donald Trump is giving a raging, rambling speech with accusations against everyone and everything. But there’s one thing he flagged that everyone needs to understand the details about.
Here’s what he said …
Trump takes a sarcastic dig at adult film star accuser: “I’m sure she’s never been grabbed before.”
The retiring Harry Reid tells TPM’s Lauren Fox that he has set the stage for Democrats to nuke the filibuster for Supreme Court nominees if Republicans block Clinton’s nominee(s).
“They mess with the Supreme Court, it’ll be changed just like that in my opinion,” Reid said, snapping his fingers together.
Given the outsized impact of David Fahrenthold’s reporting on the election, I’ve been wondering for a while what the genesis of that reporting was. The first it came across my radar was when Fahrenthold managed to prove and then shame Donald Trump into actually coughing up the $1 million for veterans’ causes that he had pledged during a fundraiser he held in January. I figured that was the origin of it. Now we have confirmation.
It’s October 24 and the PollTracker Average stands at Clinton 50.2 percent, Trump 42 percent, an 8.2 percentage-point spread
The TPM Electoral Scoreboard stands at Clinton 323, Trump 177. Evan McMullin is leading in Utah, worth six electoral votes. Alaska, Arizona, and Ohio are in the Toss Up category.
For months, more than a year actually, I’ve been writing about the hunger for dominance and revenge that drives Trump and the campaign and movement he’s built in his image. Even in the face of looming defeat he’s cultivated an atmosphere of menace, calling the country’s voting system rigged and hinting he may defy an adverse verdict at the polls. And yet, coming off the final debate, even with continued talk about rigged elections and cherry-picked polls which duck the trend predicting a devastating defeat, we seem to be seeing something different: the emergence of bitter and dejected low-energy Trump.
In response to my post last night about voting lines, I had a number of people write in saying they’ve never waited more than a few minutes to vote – often people in their 50s or 60s and older, so people who’ve voted in a lot of elections. And most of those people asked, how does that even happen? What’s the root cause? Obviously in any given election, in any given precinct, you can have a random malfunction or screw up that leads to long lines. In theory, that can happen anywhere. But the cause of long lines in the vast majority of cases is really, really simple. Depending on where you vote, the number of voting machines and precinct workers per eligible voter can vary wildly. If one polling station has one polling machine per x eligible voters and another has one per 50x eligible voters, the outcome is pretty obvious. And there are numerous studies showing that precincts with a lot of poor and/or non-whites have on average many fewer voting machines, poll workers, etc. Some of this is by design; some of it is a recapitulation of the same structural dynamics that leave underprivileged communities under-resourced across the board. Same difference.