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10.04.16 | 9:30 pm
Debate Live Blog #3

9:50 PM: This would be a good time for Kaine to note that ISIS has been losing ground steadily for months.

9:49 PM: Pence doesn’t respond on nuclear weapons.

9:47 PM: The secret plan combined with the general’s plan!

9:46 PM: Kaine hits him on Curiel, as a native Indianan, and Pence doesn’t even respond. “When Donald Trump said Mexicans are rapists and criminals, when Donald Trump said about your judge, a Hoosier judge, he said that judge Curiel was unqualified to hear a case because his parents were Mexican American, I can’t believe you can defend that.” Silence from Pence.

9:42 PM: Like he did on taxes, Kaine puts Trump on the ropes on immigration. Whenever Pence has to defend Trump’s big vulnerabilities head on he can’t manage it.

9:41 PM: Kaine’s third mention of Trump as chief birther.

9:37 PM: Kaine: Apropos of policing, let’s discuss how Donald Trump is horrible.

9:36 PM: Get a feeling that Pence is feeling 2020 here.

9:29 PM: Kaine’s steadied and gotten stronger after the first 15 or 20 minutes.

10.04.16 | 9:13 pm
Debate Live Blog #2

9:27 PM: “You have a voting record, senator … I can’t believe you won’t defend your own voting record.”

9:26 PM: Note that moderator chooses right-leaning group’s numbers to frame Social Security question. Sad!

9:25 PM: Kaine’s really got him on the ropes here.

9:24 PM: “He used the tax code just the way it’s supposed to be used and he did it brilliantly.”

9:22 PM: “You can roll out the numbers.”

9:20 PM: Not sure this Hired, Fired thing is amazingly catchy. In general, I think both are doing fairly well in the eyes of the groups they’re trying to appeal to. Would say some edge to Kaine. But pretty even.

9:15 PM: Ding, ding, ding: Great Work, Bill!

9:14 PM: Gotta say, I did not expect this. I think it’s a little choppy for both candidates. But this is pretty intense as any presidential or vice presidential debates go.

9:13 PM: Feisty.

10.04.16 | 8:46 pm
Debate Live Blog #1

9:11 PM: Looks like Chris Matthews had this wrong.

9:10 PM: I laugh at Trump mic truthers. But Pence’s mic actually sounds a bit off, echoey.

9:08 PM: Kaine brought a knife I guess.

9:06 PM: Tim Kaine is pretty prepped.

9:02 PM: Chris Matthews is saying that he expects Kaine won’t attack Trump and will focus on playing defense. I really hope that’s not true.

8:46 PM: Debate commentary wisdom will soon be here.

10.04.16 | 6:24 pm
No Better Time!

If you’re getting ready for tonight’s debate and you’ve been putting it off, now’s a great time to join TPM Prime. It’s cheap; it’s awesome; and you’ll help build a better TPM, not just in these crazy weeks before the election but in the years to come. Take a moment right now and join us.

Thanks. I really appreciate.

10.04.16 | 5:55 pm
Peak Trump Republicanism

10.04.16 | 5:43 pm
Not As Boring As You Think!

You may think that tonight’s historic face off between Tim Kaine and Mike Pence, two of the more boring politicians in American history, is going to be a snooze. But please, do not be so naive! It will be much cooler than you think. It is true that every Veep debate in this century has included someone who is either crazy (Palin), evil (Cheney) or at least entertaining (Biden). Indeed, in addition to Biden-ness the 2012 Veep debate had significant drama because Democrats were rather desperate for Biden to get them up on their feet after Obama’s deflating showing in 2012’s first presidential debate.

But here’s why Veep debates are still a big deal.

Read More

10.04.16 | 3:02 pm
Delete Your Account, America

Feral Trumper raises White Supremacist ‘Pepe the Frog’ poster in background as CNN interviews man who played a historic role in the case that became Brown v Board ….

10.04.16 | 1:52 pm
Why No Downfall?

Referring to his late night/early morning rage/tweet storms, Eric Trump says his father’s “energy” can be his “downfall.” Which actually reminds me, shouldn’t we be seeing a lot more “Downfall” videos?

10.04.16 | 11:32 am
Nope. Nothing Terrible Will Happen

Indiana parade float has Trump executing Clinton by electric chair.

10.04.16 | 11:28 am
Podcast Episode #4

All your polling questions answered!

If you missed it, Episode #4 of my new podcast is out. In this episode I talk to Professor Charles Franklin, one of the country’s preeminent polling experts about un-skewing, phone v online polls, how not to make yourself get stupid and more. Check it out.