Editors’ Blog

RUSSIAN NEGOTIATORS TODAY SAID that they’re making progress in ceasefire negotiations with Ukraine and expect to sign a document in the next few days. On its face, that’s not very credible given what we see unfolding in the country. Even more so because it is hard to imagine what terms both sides would currently agree to for a ceasefire or end of the conflict. What complicates the picture though is that one of President Zelensky’s top advisors, Mykhailo Podolyak, who is involved in the negotiations posted a short video today saying something broadly similar. Podolyak said Russian negotiators are no longer making ultimatums and are “looking far more properly” at the situation on the ground. He says he thinks “concrete results” are possible in the next few days.

Again, who knows what that means. But it’s similar enough to the comments from the Russian side to make one think there may be some movement forward.

As long time readers know, I spent most of my 20s training to be a historian. In fact it was what I was certain I wanted to do since High School. And then right about my mid-20s I realized somehow it just didn’t fit. Or wouldn’t fit for me. But that was a professional decision. History remained my guiding passion and my prism for much of my understanding of the world. Which brings me to the subject of history podcasts. I’m not a big podcast guy — despite having my own podcast. This is probably because I’ve been blessed for many years with a commute that is only a few blocks. So I’m not a huge podcast listener, though I’ve listened to more since the pandemic. But when I find one I like — really always a history podcast — well, I really go all in.

Early in the pandemic I started listening to something called the History of Singapore podcast. Unfortunately, it only seemed to run for a single season. But I loved it. In addition to the history of Singapore being fascinating and compelling in itself the show provided a fascinating perspective on the decolonization movements of the mid-20th century.

There were reports overnight from the AP and CNN that armor from that convoy outside of Kyiv had “dispersed” into smaller groups. It was unclear to me just what dispersed meant. It could mean a million things. But subsequent reporting suggests – not surprisingly – that they’ve moved off into the woods in smaller groups. And that seems to be for protection. When the country is bristling with anti-tank weapons being stuck in a miles long convoy of tanks and other army is about the most dangerous place you can be. You’re out in the open. You’re not moving. In some cases the vehicles are broken down or out of gas. They appear to be dispersing to make themselves less vulnerable targets.

This seems to be a significant part of the story. Logistical breakdowns are leaving Russian armor either stranded or broken down or without clear orders and they are then vulnerable to attack by far more mobile Ukrainian army units with sophisticated anti-tank weaponry.

I always hope our subscription sign up drives will coincide with a relatively calm news environment so I can spend some time discussing the importance of your memberships for the future of TPM. Well, no such luck. I’d say we’re not in a calm news environment. And I don’t think that’s going to change by next week when our annual drive kicks off. So we’re just going to have to juggle it all. And we can do that.

If you’re already a member, thanks. You’re one of over 33,000 paying subscribers who fund our operation. If you’re a reader but not yet a member, please consider signing up during the drive. It’s a great deal. You get access to everything we publish and you make our operation possible. For a small membership upgrade you can get Prime AF, which has zero ads and the best reading experience possible. So keep that all in mind for next week.

Thanks.

A new episode of The Josh Marshall Podcast is live! This week, Kate is joined by TPM investigative reporter Josh Kovensky to discuss the struggle for democracy in Ukraine and back in the U.S.

You can listen to the new episode of The Josh Marshall Podcast here.

I’m going to go back to sharing sources of what I believe is reliable information about the situation in Ukraine, in addition to commenting on developing issues. But I wanted to attempt an overview of where things stand two weeks in.

In advance of the Russian invasion it was clear that a full-scale invasion of Ukraine was an immense gamble for Russia. Success depended on a number of outcomes that were, critically, not under Russia’s control: most specifically a rapid collapse of Ukrainian morale and disintegration of the Ukrainian state under military assault. Had that happened, the military cost of invasion would be limited and there was at least a chance that the Europe and the U.S. wouldn’t have had the appetite or unity for sanctions in the face of what was a fait accompli. Maybe. But after only a few days it had become clear that the the decision to invade was a strategic disaster of immense proportions for Russia. The invasion finally created the united and militarized NATO Russia has long professed to fear. That unity also spurred a tide of economic sanctions that are already bringing the Russian economy to its knees. The Nordstream 2 gas pipeline which appeared to be an unbreakable link between the Russian and EU economies is now a distant memory. The Russian stock market has been shuttered since just after the invasion. At least the country’s near term future looks to be one of economic autarky, collapsed incomes and savings and one in which basic technology driving sectors of the economy may sputter or grind to a halt for lack of parts which can no longer be imported.

We know the former president has a lot of enemies — both political and inanimate.

I’m still poking around. Because this is just a very general impression and of course this is not an area of expertise. But putting together comments over the last 36 hours from political leaders in Ukraine and Russia in addition to political and military leaders in Europe and North America, something seems to be shifting. As in I’m getting the sense that Russia’s near-term position is weaker than we might have imagined. This isn’t a prediction. I wouldn’t be in a position to make one. But watch the statements coming out of Ukraine and Russia, both their substance and their tone.

I must say that I am looking forward to the raft of articles in the works from the Times, WaPo, Politico and above all Axios about the GOP’s reckoning with the fact that their party leader (and most of his party) has spent the last several years toadying and obsequiously embracing Vladimir Putin and Russia. I jest of course since I have little hope that any of these pieces will be written. But the leader of this party has spent the last seven years fawning over the increasingly dictatorial leader of the country who has now tipped the world into the biggest international crisis in a generation and I guess we’re somehow not going to talk about that. I mean, he actually got impeached over it and for participating in a scheme to make the country Russia just invaded easier to invade.

It’s been a while since we’ve checked in on this character.

Convicted Russian spy Maria Butina just did a bizarre and rather concerning interview with the BBC in which she argued that Ukraine is “bombing” its own civilians and pushed Kremlin talking points that President Vlodymyr Zelensky, a Jewish descendant of Holocaust survivors, is a Nazi.

The interview honestly sounds like a confused hostage video. I’ll get into the details more below. But since serving 15 months in U.S. prisons after being convicted of working as an unregistered foreign agent — for attempting to infiltrate the National Rifle Association and after admitting to helping set up a Russian backchannel for conservative strategists ahead of the 2016 election — Butina returned to Russia in 2019. And she’s a politician now — apparently a fairly successful one. Butina became a member of the Russian parliament’s lower chamber in 2021 and has batted away accusations that President Putin helped hand her the position as a “reward” for her criminal endeavors in the U.S.