9:40 PM: We’re now getting a clearer view of the terrain in PA-SEN. And the upshot seems to be that Specter racked up a good margin in Philadelphia. But Sestak is doing well enough pretty much everywhere else that he’s looking like the winner. Way to early to call it. But that’s how it’s looking at this moment.
9:55 PM: Judy Miller resurfaces as elections commentator on Fox. Huh.
9:57 PM: As I noted earlier, remember that in the Arkansas Senate primary Blanche Lincoln’s real opponent isn’t so much Bill Halter as it 50%+. And right now she’s a few points shy.
10:00 PM: Sestak ahead of Specter by 2 with 40% of the vote in.
10:03 PM: And now it’s 4 points.
10:04 PM: The margin is still close with less than 50% of the votes in. But if you look at the map, it doesn’t seem like Specter has enough places left to find the votes to catch up. Too much of the vote has already come in in Philly. And Sestak’s doing well in Pittsburgh area.
10:09 PM: Now that the PA-SEN race seems pretty clear, check out PA-12, down at the bottom of our scoreboard. That’s Jack Murtha’s old district. About a third of the vote in, and the Dem Critz is kicking the Republicans butt. Now, a lot of the Republicans’ big areas haven’t reported in yet. But that’s a big margin. And if the Dems can hold on to that seat — which is a classic swing district (went for Kerry, went for McCain) with a cultural tinge that should be difficult for Dems this year — that’s going to be a big deal.
8:41 PM: How about that Souder guy?
8:46 PM: Remember, as a general matter, Specter has to really clean up in Philly to be in this thing. So that’ll be the key early tell.
8:48 PM: Rand Paul now rhapsodizing about Tea Party movement. Now explaining why Obama is pal of third world radicals. CNN producer tweets: “Rand Paul’s victory party isn’t a Tea Party rager. Appears to be mostly his friends and supporters from the community and country club.”
9:03 PM: CNN just went to Larry King with hourlong interview with Mick Jagger. I admit it was hard not to insist we stay on that.
9:11 PM: Maybe Specter is still in this thing. Most of the chatter of the day has talked in terms of low turnout which most figure would be bad for Specter. But now it’s seeming like those predictions of low turnout were wrong or perhaps that there was a late surge of turnout.
9:22 PM: Note the results so far in the Dem Senate primary in Arkansas (on our scoreboard to the right). Lincoln has to get over 50% to clinch this tonight and avoid a runoff.
9:27 PM: Helpful map of results so far in PA.
9:36 PM: Down to a 2 point spread in PA-Sen race with 28% reporting.
8:11 PM: Polls are closed in PA. Waiting for results.
8:19 PM: Thumb twiddling.
8:20 PM: Seems pretty clear that Rand Paul isn’t just winning but absolutely crushing the ill-fated Trey Grayson. I don’t really know enough about Kentucky politics to say what it means. But one reader notes that there are substantially more people voting in the Kentucky Democratic primary than on the Republican side. Conway is ahead now 48% to 40% over Mongiardo with about half the vote in.
8:26 PM: The Tea Party candidate (Todd Lally) has apparently beaten the NRCC’s chosen Republican (Jeffrey Reetz) in the KY-3 primary to face John Yarmouth.
8:30 PM: We’ll know soon enough but sounding like rain in Philly may really have done Specter in PA. Of course, it’ll have to be pretty close for that to have mattered.
8:32 PM: On higher Dem turnout in Kentucky, I was wondering whether registrations might still lean Dem in Kentucky, despite the state now being a strong Republican state. Apparently that’s what it is, according to Chuck Todd.
8:34 PM: Starting to get the first trickle of returns out on Pennsylvania. Watch them with me at the top of our election scoreboard, just below the feature over on the right column of the site.
The AP and the cable nets are calling the Republican Senate primary in Kentucky for Rand Paul.
Not to get ahead of ourselves, but in very early returns in the GOP Senate primary in Kentucky, Trey Grayson is losing his home county of Boone to Rand Paul. Grayson has 532 votes, 34 percent, to Paul’s 1,014 votes, 64 percent (5 of 60 precincts reporting).
Late Update: Boone County returns are now completely in: Paul carried Grayson’s home county 67-31.
Gov. Rendell tells Christina Bellantoni the rain in Philly was “not good” for Specter.
We’re getting the first early results out of Kentucky this evening. See the latest results on our election scoreboard below the feature on the right.
Mark Williams, chairman of Tea Party Express, unleashes mound of anti-Muslim hate speech. Calls Islamic deity “monkey-god” and all Muslims “the animals of allah.”
Our Brian Beutler is up on the Hill following the latest on the Financial Reform voting. McCaskill just said this …
“So we were going along very well, we were smooth sailing, we were having an open amendment process, Democrats were voting for some Republican amendments, and a few Republicans were voting for Democratic amendments. And it appears that we somehow in the last hour fell off a cliff. I hope I’m wrong, but if all of a sudden the other side is saying we’re going to change the game now and now that we’ve gotten all these Republican amendments voted on, we’re not going to let any more of the Democratic substantive amendments come up.”
It looks like Senate Republicans are throwing a well-placed monkey wrench in the financial reform works. Progressive senators have been wrangling with the Democratic leadership to at least get votes on their tough-on-Wall-Street amendments, and it appeared that some sort of accommodation/resolution was close. But now anonymous Republican senators are blocking consideration of several amendments. That’s set off senators like Byron Dorgan (D-ND), who has threatened to filibuster the whole bill if his amendment doesn’t get a vote. Dorgan is on the floor now objecting to all amendments.
The backdrop to all this is that the politics of Wall Street reform have become so anti-Wall Street that even the Senate Democratic leadership is a little nervous that some of the toughest amendments stand a chance of passing because no one wants to be on the wrong side of these votes this close to an election.
Sen. Carl Levin (D-MI) is now saying that this may prevent Democrats from getting the 60 votes they need to move the bill forward.