Editors’ Blog
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10.14.10 | 5:17 am
The Truth Finally Wins Out

A billboard in Colorado shows four cartoon versions of President Obama: terrorist, gangster, bandito and gay man. Take a look.

10.14.10 | 4:46 am
Just Let It Go, Man

For his own sake, I hope Mike Castle didn’t watch last night’s debate.

10.13.10 | 10:01 pm
He Should Fit Right In

This article just out from the Anchorage Daily News suggests that Alaska Senate hopeful Joe Miller should fit right in in the tradition of clean-government Alaska congressional representation.

Got busted for using government property as part of his plan to unseat the state GOP party chairman back in 2008 while he was part time city attorney for Fairbanks North Star Borough. There’s also something weird in the story about his using multiple staffers’ computers for whatever he was trying to do unseat the incumbent chair, though the folks who caught him don’t seem to have figured out just what he was up to. Later he was set to be fired for an as yet undisclosed reason but resigned a few hours in advance of getting canned. The mayor of the borough at the time now says Miller has been “less than honest” about what happened.

10.13.10 | 5:40 pm
Wisest Man in the State?

Our Ryan Reilly ran into Sen. Ted Kaufman on the Metro this evening. He’s the guy O’Donnell and Coons are fighting to replace. Wasn’t he interested in the debate, TPM asked? “No, I didn’t get a chance to see it, how’d it go?”

10.13.10 | 5:38 pm
From the Debate

Hmmm. O’Donnell tells Coons US didn’t finish the job fighting the Soviets in Afghanistan and now has to finish the job.

You sort of get what she means but sounds like someone whose debate prep was a bit rushed.

10.13.10 | 3:50 pm
Is That Where We’re Going?

Is this where we’re going?

Writing in the National Review, Pat Sajak (yep, he’s also a big time conservative) asks: should public employees really be allowed to vote?

Disenfranchisement of teachers, cops and fire fighters? Wow, who could disagree with such a great idea?

10.13.10 | 3:08 pm
What Might She Say Next?

Christine O’Donnell and Chris Coons square off in a televised debate in the Delaware Senate race at 7:30 p.m. ET. We’ll be watching, so check out our coverage this evening.

10.13.10 | 3:06 pm
This Could Be Big

This might be a pretty big deal.

For years people have written in to TPM to ask: must it not skew the polls that most pollsters only use landlines and not cell phones? Especially since younger, more transient voters tend to skew more Democratic?

My answer has always been: not yet.

In principle, yes, it’s a big blind spot for current polling methodology. And pollsters have been watching it closely — and nervously. In practice though most studies have shown that the difference is either trivial or very small. Pew is one of the pollsters that’s been systematically sampling this question going back a few years. As recently as the 2008 cycle the difference was just over 2 percentage points. But according to a study just released by Pew, whether or not pollsters sample cell phones is producing “differences of four to six points in the margin” in favor of the GOP. Pew is basing this conclusion on four comparisons. Three of the four polls had differences in that range. One poll showed no difference.

I would strongly recommend that Democratic enthusiasts not start adjusting the polls they’re seeing by a 4-6 point margin. I will, shall we say, believe this one when I see it. It’s also important to note that a number of national pollsters are already incorporating cell phones. Where the real vulnerability comes is in state and district polls and robo-pollsters — like Rasmussen, PPP and SurveyUSA.

Again, in the past the differences usually seemed too small to figure significantly into the prediction equation. But this could be the cycle where that changes.

We’ll soon find out.

10.13.10 | 1:55 pm
Polls Not Budging in Wisconsin

Unlike Murray, what looks really tough for Feingold is just how consistent the last four weeks of polls have been. Pretty much everyone seems to have Russ in the mid-low 40s and Tea Partier Johnson at 50% or just over.