The really inside scoop on tomorrow night’s Wisconsin recall elections is that neither side appears to have a clear idea of what’s going to happen. The polls are neck and neck. And on top of that, this kind of recall election is so unprecedented that there simply aren’t any good models for how to predict turnout one way or another. Here’s the latest data on what to expect tomorrow night.
So just what was that $2 trillion error S&P made in its analysis of US creditworthiness? We explain.
Watch Live: Obama speaking at 1pm 1:30 PM on the aftermath of S&P downgrade.
Late Update: Now pushed back to 1:30 PM.
Gallup: Obama’s approval ratings perking up in crucial election states over the course of the last year.
Krugman makes a pretty decent point about the aftermath of the S&P downgrade. If the markets were heeding that message you’d expect the rates the US has to pay to borrow money would be rising, as it became harder to convince investors that owning US debt is essential risk free. But the reverse is happening so far today: the rate has dropped pretty consistently through the day. In other words, the reaction to market volatility seems to be for people to rush and buy treasuries.
Now, speaking as a non-economist, I’m not so wedded to the idea of market rationality that I think you can’t have a lot of market instability triggered by the downgrade and simultaneously have investors reacting to the instability by buying up US debt. But that’s just me. In any case, it does suggest that in general investors have not put much stock in the S&P’s judgment.
Landfill gas will power the nation’s first “Green Marine Corps” base, the Marine Corps Air Station Miramar, near San Diego.
Herman Cain takes weeklong hammering from conservatives over apology to American Muslims.
What are the odds you figure that Senate Republicans would have demanded another round of entitlement or discretionary spending cuts in exchanging for approving another Treasury Secretary?