We now know that from 2014 through 2016 the FBI had obtained a FISA warrant to surveil Paul Manafort because of his work for the Russia-aligned leader of Ukraine, Viktor Yanukovych, and then for his party once he went into exile. They started again at some point in the second half of 2016. The second run was tied to the election. This is in addition to the FISA warrant monitoring Carter Page and the eavesdropping on the Russian Ambassador (fairly standard) which picked up conversations the Ambassador had with Michael Flynn. Read More

Are Trump’s numbers finally ticking up?

If we go by Gallup, yes, he does seem to have ticked up a bit. I call it the Trump Storm Surge. Starting with Hurricane Harvey and continuing into Irma, Trump’s presence as caregiver in chief, stumbling as he’s been, does seem to have slightly buoyed his public support.  Read More

When the weak or the marginalized are defiant or even threatening, there is a self-regulating dynamic which limits the danger or renders it minimal. We can see this on both the domestic and international fronts. Chants of “black power” may be superficially comparable to chants of “white power”. But most of us intuitively understand they are very different. The defiance and demand of the marginalized or disempowered is inherently defensive in nature whereas the defiance and demand of the powerful is inherently aggressive and menacing. Read More

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These tactics from Trump ‘lawyer’ Michael Cohen probably work better with New York City real estate goons than Senate Committees.

Following up on my post below, let me add one more point. Below I noted that having two members of Trump’s campaign the subjects of active counter-intelligence investigations must have set off alarm bells in the US intelligence world. But of course it wasn’t just that. Law enforcement and US intelligence had known for years that Trump was heavily reliant on money from countries of the former Soviet Union, with much of that money coming from dubious sources. I discussed just how much they knew here. Read More

Here’s another perspective on last night’s Manafort news. I explained last night that at least two members of Trump’s team were being surveilled last year under FISA warrants over ties to suspected Russian intelligence operatives. But there’s another dimension of this. Read More

President Trump has signaled he would like to hold a military parade on Pennsylvania Avenue out front of the White House next July 4th to show off American military might. The parade would include tanks, jet fighters and other heavy armaments for public display through the streets of the national capital. “So we’re actually thinking about 4th of July, Pennsylvania Avenue, having a really great parade to show our military strength,” said the President. Read more here.

This may be too obscure and low energy to hold the commanding heights of our attention. But the Republican Governors Association has launched a ‘news’ publication dubbed the Free Telegraph which will publish praise for Republican governors and negative portrayals of Democratic governors.

It is hard to know precisely what to make of tonight’s revelation that Paul Manafort was the subject of a FISA warrant before and after the 2016 election. Just when the FISA warrant was granted is not clear from the report. But the precise date would tell us a lot. Read More