A Snapshot

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March 30, 2020 5:52 p.m.

Here’s new data just released from the COVID-19 Tracking Project.

First, here’s the latest data for daily new cases and fatalities across the United States.

The optimistic take on this is that the number of new cases each day has been relatively stable, with a small daily increase hovering around 20,000 new cases a day. But that stability may be constrained by testing. Three of the last five days have had just over 113,000 tests per day. The weekend recorded slightly fewer.

As I’ve suggested in other posts today, one key question is whether these national numbers are really just showing us the New York pattern while other hotspots are yet to move toward dramatic growth. To get a sense of that, here’s the same two data points, new cases and new fatalities for New York and the rest of the United States outside New York.

I should note here testing in New York state has also been fairly stable going back more than a week. The hit rate for the testing has gone up though – 75% of tests positive on Saturday, 44% yesterday and 50% today. This is consistent with greater emphasis on testing only those presenting with serious symptoms and largely in hospitals.

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