Bless their hearts. The Times states the facts correctly: “Starting last year, as the groundwork was being set for the emerging debate, the Social Security trustees took the liberty of projecting the system’s solvency over infinity, rather than sticking to the traditional 75-year time horizon. That world-without-end assumption generates the scary $10 trillion estimate, and with it, Mr. Bush’s putative rationale for dismantling Social Security in favor of a system centered on private savings accounts.”
The whole editorial is well worth your reading.
What follows also tells an important part of the story …
The American Academy of Actuaries, the profession’s premier trade association, objected to the change. In a letter to the trustees, the actuaries wrote that infinite projections provide “little if any useful information about the program’s long-range finances and indeed are likely to mislead any [nonexpert] into believing that the program is in far worse financial condition than is actually indicated.”As it often does with dissenting professional opinion, the administration is ignoring the actuaries. But that doesn’t alter the facts or common sense. If the $10 trillion figure is essentially bogus, so is the claim that Social Security is in crisis. The assertion that doing nothing would be costlier than enacting a privatization plan also turns out to be wrong, by the estimates of Congress’s own budget agency.
I wouldn’t imagine that the American Academy of Actuaries annual convention would be the one you’d want to go to for the most rockin’ parties. But presumably this is a topic they know something about.
