Yesterday Senate Finance Committee chairman Sen. Chuck Grassley said Bush’s Social Security plan ain’t going anywhere unless there is a significant shift in public opinion. This morning’s Washington Post reports the White House is telling its allies they have at most six weeks to turn public opinion around.
How big a shift will be necessary to produce a turnaround for Bush? Well, Ruy Teixeira has usefully summarized the latest polls on the subject, and (1) Bush’s support level on Social Security is clearly in the high 30s at best, and (2) support for his “plan” drops the more voters hear about it.
I might add that on big changes in American government–and even American life–like this, opposition tends to harden over time, barring some particular change in the environment.
Sure, no one should misunderestimate the ability of the White House to push this thing right up to the gates of delerium, but let’s also remember Bush’s M.O.–he’ll act like he’s headed for victory right up to the minute he suddenly decides tax reform or the budget or some other element of the “ownership society” is suddenly more urgent.
He’s going to lose this fight, folks, whether or not one or two Democrats in the House or the Senate give him “cover” by offering some sort of deal that neither party will accept.