It now seems almost

August 4, 2006 11:57 a.m.

It now seems almost like a given that Joe Lieberman will lose his struggle for the Democratic nomination next Tuesday. But his fall is so precipitous and the possible margin of his defeat so large, that it now seems increasingly questionable whether he’ll even appear on the ballot in November, let alone win reelection to his seat. Yes, could have walked away with it as an independent had a hypothetical race been held a month ago. He may even lead in one today. But as Mark Schmitt’s been saying for a while the negative momentum created by a clear defeat in the primary will have a catalyzing effect. I really doubt that more than a smattering of Dems will rally to his independent bid. Suddenly he’ll be branded as a loser. And the pressure to get out will be fierce. If Joe goes down, I think the day he sealed his fate was when he decided to hedge his bets and not abide by the results of the Democratic primary.

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