Some analyses from the field.
First TPM Reader KF from Rhode Island …
Just a few points regarding this race. From the perspective of a life long Rhode Islander.
1. Rhode Islander’s tend to elect a Senator to life appointments. Examples, Aldridch, Green, Pell, Pastore, Chafee (the elder) to name a few: Senator Reed is about a safe a seat as there is.
2. Whitehouse, has the whiff of a loser, he’s lost every race he’s run and will not beat Chafee. So don’t get excited about his ads going after Bush. Or his possibilities. Remember you heard it here first. He’s a good man and would be granted the RI lifetime appointment but he’s stuck. We just don’t have enough seats in Congress. Maybe the Kennedy seat? (oh ya, lifetime appointments, I forgot).
3. Laffey never stood a chance against Chaffee, too much of a tool, shrill, spastic, plays to the pitchfork crowd. For such a blue collar state Rhode Islanders elect Senators with gravitas, the rest of the country should watch how we do it.
Anyway we’ve got Chafee. And we’ll have him for a long time.
And TM Reader DB from Tennessee …
what’s “happening in TN” is that Ford is simply out-working and out-campaigning Corker. The guy is tireless and seems to get good press everywhere he appears in person across the state. He’s following Governor Bredesen’s lead of campaigning hard in east tn (the Republican part of the state) to neutralize the GOP advantage there instead of ignoring it like we’ve done in the past. And he’s being very very tough on Corker and on Bush. Meanwhile Corker has been virtually non-existent since the primary. He’s just started his ad campaign and it’s bo-ring and typical. Ford’s premise that this is not about liberal and conservative but about the future and the past is a nice complement to Corker’s old-time image versus Ford’s energy. It’s as if Corker thought he could coast. Where is he on Social Security? On the war? Nobody knows. It doesn’t hurt that the social conservatives of the state are still smarting from what Corker did to Bryant and Van Hilleary.
Ford seems determined to win in a way that Sasser and Cooper never were. Unfortunately, there are lots of things still working against us. Ordinarily the fact that the Governor is so popular would help suppress Republican turnout–the GOP candidate is weak. But there’s also an anti-gay amendment on the ballot that will get those disaffected social conservatives to the polls. With them, it’s a question of whether Corker can convince them to push his button while they’re in there. Then there’s the money…Corker’s campaign budget is unlimited and he’s still essentially tied even with mounting virtually no campaign whatsoever so far (he’s had one bio ad that I’ve seen, and the GOP has run an anti-Ford ad but that’s about it).
I’m a liberal and I don’t appreciate many of Ford’s high-profile positions. But I think many of the netroots crowd (who are *really* anti-Ford) are missing the toughness he’s showed so far, and are over-estimating his conservatism. I would have voted for him anyway of course, but his energy and determination have won me over. I suspect it has alot of folks, at least enough to make this close. And it would be an exciting thing here. In Nashville, we just elected our first black female judge (yeah yeah we elect our judges…) There’s a certain pride in the city over that, and I think more people than you would guess would be excited to send our first black Senator to Washington. Whether that’s over 50% of the state is another question. At any rate, there are many reasons to root for Harold Ford.
I spent several years of my life in Rhode Island. And I’m not sure I agree with KF. But I understand what he’s getting at. With DB, dunno. But I like the sound of it.
