On the rebound? I’d like to see some numbers from another polling firm to be certain. But it looks at least like Rep. Tom Reynolds (R-NY), head of the NRCC, is pulling off something of a comeback after getting knocked out cold over the Foley fiasco. The two most recent polls, both by SurveysUSA, have him back on top by small margins after falling as much as ten points behind in several recent polls.
And following up on yesterday’s post about how top of the ticket blow-outs in New York and Pennsylvania might help House candidates down-ticket, TPM Reader BY says the following …
I think NY and PA are two different animals. In PA, you’ve got a Senate candidate running a full campaign with a lot of money. He’s losing, but he’s running. And Swann … well, he’s a classic “seemed like a good idea at the time” candidate. Great bio, well-spoken, but utterly clueless. But at least he’s high-profile. So, I don’t think PA GOP candidates will be totally on their own.
NY, though … the NY GOP has completely melted down. Imploded. I work for a Democratic candidate, and I can tell you that Republicans are just completely demoralized. There aren’t too many signs out, almost no volunteers knocking on doors … nothing. There’s no cohesion in anything they do. I think what you’ll see is that GOP reps who are running strong campaigns and have a long history in the district (Walsh, Sweeney, maybe King) will not under-perform too badly. But Kuhl will have trouble, Meier will get blasted, Kelly isn’t the favorite even though she’s the incumbent … those folks will have trouble. And Walsh, Sweeney, et all really have to roll the rock up the hill all by their lonesome.
That sounds right to me. New York seems unique this cycle. Pennsylvania and Ohio may turn out to be blow-outs at the top of the ticket. But you’ve definitely got GOP senate incumbents in both states that really don’t want to lose their jobs and are putting up a real fight. So they’re going to push for wild GOTV on the ground.
