Weird. That’s not something I would have expected. Gallup’s numbers usually aren’t that friendly to Dems, on the spectrum of national polls (not a scientific study, just my experience of recent cycles). But Gallup’s state by state numbers are out on several big senate races. And they show little or none of the tightening you see in the Mason-Dixon numbers.
Let’s do a quick run-down.
MO McCaskill (D) 49%, Talent (R) 45%
MT Tester (D) 50%, Burns (R) 41%
NJ Menendez (D) 50%, Kean (R) 40%
RI Whitehouse (D) 48%, Chafee (R) 45%
TN Corker (R) 49%, Ford (D) 46%
VA Allen (R) 49%, Webb (D) 46%
The only number that really jumps out to me as an outlier is Montana. All the polls I’ve seen have shown Burns at least gaining on Tester. So a ten point margin sticks out like sore thumb. The other numbers, while friendlier to the Dems, aren’t so far off what we’ve seen. Tight in Missouri. A lead for Menendez. Close in the other states.
The Menendez lead is bigger than other polls, I think. But New Jersey’s a Democratic state. So this sort of reverting to form would make a certain sense.
We’ll soon see.
