As the saying goes, if it didn’t exist, you’d have to invent it.
So with that in mind, let’s do a little prospective journalism. When the bogus ‘Iran incident’ happens that becomes the predicate for a military attack on Iran, what will it look like? Let’s try to sketch it out in advance. Will it be a real incident in Iraq for which the Iranians are blamed? Or will it be a complete bogus incident, something that never happened, that they’re blamed for? Will we receive the news in manufactured evidence? Or will it all come through unnamed leaks and Richard Perle appearances on CNN?
Some key requirements occur to me.
1. Despite being fake, the incident must seem reasonably credible.
2. It must appear serious enough that discounting its importance or questioning its veracity appears the height of unseriousness.
3. It must place the majority of us in the odd and unexpected position of granting to President Bush the unfettered discretion to launch a war against Iran at the time and place of his choosing, despite our desire that he start it right now.
Any other requirements?
Late Update: TPM Reader TB adds some key requirements …
The incident can’t be quickly falsifiable. It will have to take a long time and a lot of effort to be revealed as bogus. Weapons of mass destruction were perfect: we had to get into Iraq to show them to be false, and by that time, of course, it was too late to stop the war. The sort of same thing will be needed to commit some sort of act of war on Iran.
Later Update: We can of course evaluate this one for potential. This is right off the presses from CNN …
The Pentagon is investigating whether a recent attack on a military compound in Karbala was carried out by Iranians or Iranian-trained operatives, two officials from separate U.S. government agencies said.
“People are looking at it seriously,” one of the officials said.
That official added the Iranian connection was a leading theory in the investigation into the January 20 attack that killed five soldiers.
The second official said: “We believe it’s possible the executors of the attack were Iranian or Iranian-trained.”
Five U.S. soldiers were killed in the sophisticated attack by men wearing U.S.-style uniforms, according to U.S. military reports. (Watch how attackers got into the compound Video)
Both officials stressed the Iranian-involvement theory is a preliminary view, and there is no final conclusion. They agreed this possibility is being looked at because of the sophistication of the attack and the level of coordination.
“This was beyond what we have seen militias or foreign fighters do,” the second official said.
A few quick points just to make a go of it. The possibility is being looked at because of the sophistication of the attack and the level of coordination. So, not likely that any native Iraqis could have pulled off this attack. Check.
And it’s possible that the attackers were Iranian or “Iranian-trained”. Again, just for the sake of conversation — our current angle in Iraq is to cozy up to SCIRI (the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq) as the moderate Shi’a grouping over and against the al-Sadr and possibly al-Maliki, the current prime minister. SCIRI’s paramilitary is the Badr Brigade. They were formed in Iran and by Iran from pro-Iranian Iraqi Shia. They fought alongside the Iranian army during the Iran-Iraq war. Before we toppled the Hussein government, they were still headquartered in Tehran.
Anyway, I’d stop by Juan Cole’s site to hear from someone who really knows about this stuff. But even our feeble knowledge here at TPM is enough to tell us that when we start hearing catch-alls like ‘Iranian-trained’ for anything that happened in southern Iraq, we’re dealing with meaninglessly vague words meant to bamboozle and hoodwink. Remember too this incident occurred in Karbala, where the Badr Brigade is headquartered.
To be clear, I’m not saying the Badr Brigade was behind this, only that in the context of paramilitaries in southern Iraq, ‘Iranian-trained’ is a meaninglessly broad category.
Really Friggin’ Late Update: Ahhh, and of course news of the secret Iran meddling ‘dossier’ has been vouchsafed to Fox News.
Party Like it’s 1999 Update: Bob Baer picks up on rumors in Iraq that the Karbala incident might be the work of Iranian Revolutionary Guards retaliating for the capture of their comrades in Erbil earlier this month. But he’s careful to identify them as just rumors.
