TPM Reader JM with more Asia-Middle East geopolitical speculation …
I’m not arguing for this, but I can see a scenario where the real-politic crowd may take Bush’s desire for permanent presence in Iraq.
The idea of hacking Iraq into 3 regions isn’t going anywhere, presumably because it would ignite an even bigger powder keg (although I’m not sure this administration makes such calculations anymore). Still, Bush could easily have his permanent presence in northern Iraq. We’ve essentially been there since 1991 anyway — and under western protection the region has rebuilt and thrived. I wouldn’t put it past Bush to retreat to the Kurd-dominated north, setting up a defacto 1950’s Korea/West Germany style reality.
I can easily imagine future rightwing foreign policy being hung on the frame of ‘defending secular Islam from radical extremism…’ ala Taiwan, another non-existent,defacto national entity.
If you buy into the terms that TPM Reader DS specs out below, this approach makes a certain amount of sense. With one very big exception: it’s not where the oil is, or at least not enough of it. And that’s the whole point. Close enough to menace but not to control.
