Senate Democrats got a bit more good polling news on Monday: CNN’s latest surveys have them with narrow leads in Missouri and Nevada, two key Senate races.
Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-MO) leads Missouri Attorney General Josh Hawley (R) by 47 percent to 44 percent, and Rep. Jacky Rosen (D-NV) leads Sen. Dean Heller (R-NV) by 47 percent to 43 percent in the pair of new live-caller polls, conducted by SSRS.
That’s especially good news for McCaskill, who has been neck-and-neck with Hawley in most recent public and private polls. After Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D-ND), she’s the incumbent Democrats are most worried about protecting this fall. And if she can hang on, Democrats have a real path to the Senate majority.
Nevada is notoriously hard to poll, so don’t put too much stock in any one public survey there. But generally when better-known incumbents trail it’s very hard to come back in a race, and this is the third public poll in a row that’s shown him slightly behind Rosen. This is a must-win for Democrats — if they’re losing in Nevada that says Hispanic voters aren’t turning out very well for them this fall, and besides being a crucial Senate seat that spells bigger trouble across the map for the party.
If Democrats win both seats and lose just North Dakota, they’d just have to win Arizona and Tennessee to pull off what was once a fantasy and win the Senate majority. They’ve held narrow leads in most recent public and private polls in both states as well.