Poll: Statistical Tie In Missouri Senate Race

November 18, 2009 5:54 a.m.

The new survey of Missouri by Public Policy Polling (D) shows a dead heat in the race for this state’s open Republican-held Senate seat.

The numbers: Democratic Secretary of State Robin Carnahan 43%, Republican Rep. Roy Blunt 42%, with a ±3.6% margin of error. The last time PPP tested this race in January, Carnahan had an edge of 45%-44%. Carnahan also leads Blunt’s primary challenger, state Sen. Chuck Purgason, Carnahan has a 42%-35% lead. Blunt leads Purgason in the GOP primary by 53%-16%.

The pollster’s analysis finds that Carnahan’s personal ratings are much better than Blunt’s. Her favorable rating is at 40%, to a 36% unfavorable, compared to Blunt’s upside-down rating of 30%-38%. Nevertheless, this is a close race. One possible factor: President Obama’s approval rating in the state is low, at 43%-52%.

“If Robin Carnahan had faced off against Roy Blunt in any election year between 1996 and 2008 she would likely have won given her superior popularity,” said PPP president Dean Debnam, in the polling memo. “But 2010 has the potential to be an extremely good year for Republicans, and that’s made this race highly competitive.”

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