Poll: Rand Paul Leads Jack Conway By Three Points

May 27, 2010 10:48 am

The new Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll of the Kentucky Senate race gives Republican nominee Rand Paul only a narrow lead over Democratic state Attorney General Jack Conway — but it doesn’t immediately appear that Paul’s comments about the Civil Rights Act of 1964 are hurting him.

The numbers: Paul 44%, Conway 41%. The survey of likely voters has a ±4% margin of error. It might be tempting to think that Paul is having a fallout from his controversial statements opposing laws against racial discrimination by private businesses — but on the other hand, this result is essentially unchanged from the pre-primary R2K poll that gave Paul a lead of 42%-39%. The TPM Poll Average gives Paul a lead of 47.5%-38.2%.

Kos writes: “This race’s big battleground will be independent voters — Paul is currently winning them 42-31, with 27 percent undecided, and Democrats, where Conway is only getting 75 percent to Paul’s 7 Percent, with 18 percent undecided. Remember, this is Kentucky, where a significant number of voters who vote Dem in statewide elections vote GOP for federal races. Paul has already consolidated GOP support, winning them 86-6, with just 8 percent undecided.”

Late Update: This post has been edited from the original, after a correction to the post at Daily Kos.

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