Poll: Massachusetts Race A Statistical Dead Heat

The new Rasmussen poll of the Massachusetts Senate special election shows a dead heat between Democrat Martha Coakley and Republican Scott Brown.

The numbers: Coakley 49%, Brown 47%, plus 3% for independent libertarian Joe Kennedy, with a ±3% margin of error. In last week’s Rasmussen poll, Coakley led by 50%-41%, with 2% for an unnamed “some other candidate.” This new poll is roughly in line with this past weekend’s survey from Public Policy Polling (D), which had Brown with a 48%-47%. A Boston Globe poll conducted last week put Coakley up by 15 points, and the Coakley campaign released an internal poll with themselves up by 14 points.

The pollster’s analysis makes it clear how much Democrats need to rev up their base: “All polling indicates that a lower turnout is better for the Republican. The new Rasmussen Reports poll shows that Brown is ahead by two percentage points among those who are absolutely certain they will vote. A week ago, he trailed by two among those certain to vote.”