In a potentially dire sign for Republicans looking ahead to 2012, a Pew poll released Monday finds that a strong majority of elderly Americans oppose the GOP’s proposal to privatize Medicare.
In addition, the poll found that not only do Democrats oppose the proposed changes, but pluralities of both Republicans and independents do as well.
Overal 41% of Americans opposed turning Medicare into a voucher program where seniors would buy their own coverage in the private sector, while 36% supported such a plan, according to the poll. Opposition is heavily skewed toward older Americans, as might be expected, with people over 65 years-old lining up against the plan by a 51% to 25% split. Fifty-one percent of respondents in the 50-64 year-old bracket also opposed the plan, while 32% supported it.
Compare that to the two youngest demographics broken out by Pew, where pluralities actually supported the GOP plan. Among the 18-29 year-old crowd, 46% favored the Ryan plan, versus 26% who said the opposite. And among 30-49 year-olds, 38% supported the GOP’s Medicare privatization plan, while 36% opposed it.
Older voters typically turn out in high numbers during elections, and if Medicare privatization becomes a central issue in the 2012 cycle it could be a serious weight on Republican candidates. Democrats have already said they plan to use congressional votes to end Medicare against Republicans next year. DCCC Chairman Steve Israel (D-NY) even went so far as to say that the GOP’s Medicare privatization push alone had given Democrats a chance to reclaim the House in 2012.
The poll also found that Medicare privatization is unpopular across the spectrum. Democrats oppose the plan by a 46% to 35% split, as do Republicans (39% to 35%) and independents (40% to 37%.)
Going deeper, the numbers also show that the more people know about the debate, the more likely they are to oppose the GOP plan. Among those who said they had heard “a lot” about the issue, 56% opposed privatizing Medicare, versus 33% who supported it. Those who had heard little about it were more evenly split (40% to 36%) and those who said they had heard “nothing at all” tepidly supported it by a 37% to 31% split.
If that trend holds up, Democrats would be wise to keep raising the issue heading into 2012.
The Pew poll was conducted May 25-30 among 1,509 adults nationwide. It has a margin of error of 3.5%.
