Poll: Dem Coakley Leads GOPer Brown In MA-SEN Race, But Low Turnout Could Help Brown

January 5, 2010 4:18 a.m.

The new Rasmussen poll of the Massachusetts Senate special election, which will be held two weeks from today, gives Democratic candidate Martha Coakley an initial lead over Republican Scott Brown. But it might not be an automatic landslide in this Democratic-leaning state, with GOP voters disproportionately more enthusiastic in what could be a low-turnout election.

The numbers: Coakley 50%, Brown 41%, with a ±4.5% margin of error.

From the pollster’s analysis: “Special elections are typically decided by who shows up to vote and it is clear from the data that Brown’s supporters are more enthusiastic. In fact, among those who are absolutely certain they will vote, Brown pulls to within two points of Coakley. That suggests a very low turnout will help the Republican and a higher turnout is better for the Democrat.”

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