The new Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll of Arkansas suggests that Democratic Sen. Blanche Lincoln could potentially be forced into a runoff in her Dem primary, in which she is being challenged by Lt. Gov. Bill Halter.
The numbers: Lincoln 46%, Halter 37%, and a third candidate, businessman D.C. Morrison, with 6%. The poll of likely Dem primary voters has a ±5% margin of error. In the last poll from two weeks ago, Lincoln had 43%, Halter 35%, and Morrison 7%. The TPM Poll Average has Lincoln ahead of Halter by 45.2%-31.8%.
Kos makes his prediction: “Seems like much treading water compared to two weeks ago, both candidates have inched up. Lincoln will desperately try to capture enough of that undecided vote to get her above 50 percent and avoid the runoff. I’ll call it right now — she won’t get to 50. I suspect she’ll be around 44-45 percent.”