The final significant special election before the 2018 midterms is coming down to the wire, a good sign for Democrats one week out from election day.
Republican Troy Balderson leads Democrat Danny O’Connor by a statistically insignificant 44 percent to 43 percent, according to a new poll conducted by Monmouth University. That represents a nine-point swing towards O’Connor since the university last polled the race a month ago.
Those numbers are in line with other recent public and private polling that has found a close race in the race’s home stretch, in a suburban and exurban district centered in Columbus, Ohio that President Trump carried by an 11-point margin in 2016 and has long been held by Republicans.
Both parties have been spending heavily on the race to replace retired Rep. Pat Tiberi (R-OH), which not only is the last major indicator of where the electorate is heading into the final months of the 2018 midterm election campaign but represents a key seat Democrats hope to flip to net the 23 seats they need for a House majority.
Really hope the Dem wins this but why would you have this election 90 days from the midterms? By the time the winner is sworn in, it will be right before the September recess followed by October’s campaign season. I’d be surprised if the winner works more than 40 hours before his quest for re-election.
I’m not sure how Ohio’s laws work, or when they were written, or how much wiggle room the governor or other responsible state official has in scheduling specials. But in general there are a couple answers to that question.
There’s the good-governance theory, which says that we have a full-time Congress and the good people of [insert district here] deserve representation at all times, and that the cost of an election is a small price to pay for upholding our democratic rights. Just because the House invariably takes off this time of year and every vote is along party lines doesn’t mean we don’t have someone ready to go (and so forth).
There’s also the more cynical version, which says that an incumbent will always be at an advantage even if their incumbency is only a few months old, so don’t risk a tossup in a general election when you can pounce on the special. That doesn’t necessarily have a built-in partisan tilt, but if the governor (or whoever) has some leeway as to whether or not a special is called, it’s usually that kind of calculation.
Gaining 9 points in a month, to bring the race even, is NOT a “close race” any more. Unless something breaks his momentum, he’s gonna win.
Yes, but the reason this happened is because Tiberi retired, when he retired. So as a result, there is a special election. Trump is coming to stump for Balderson, the Republican running for the seat (there is no actual incumbent in this race, unless you include it has been an R seat for many moons)
O’Conner (D) is in the run of his life because Republicans have poured millions into this highly gerrymandered to favor Republican race. Keep your fingers crossed. I’ve given my dimes and hope to gawd the DCCC gave him a lot more than that.
I live in this district and would like to fly a baby Trump blimp about 150 feet in the air over my house so all of my Trump sucking neighbors would have to look at it in shame. (provided they have any)