In a new Public Policy Polling survey, Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer is leading the pack in the Republican primary, having built credibility with conservative voters since December. But that all changes if Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio, a hard-liner on immigration, were to enter the race.
Without Arpaio, Brewer gets 38% of the vote, followed by her closest challenger at 19%. Her approval rating among conservatives is 60% — not surprising, as the poll was conducted in the days after she signed a harsh new immigration law. A Rasmussen poll released this week showed that her approval numbers statewide got a huge bump after she signed the law, bringing her to 56% approval.
But if Arpaio enters the primary race, he’ll take the lead. In that hypothetical primary, he’d come out with 33% of the vote to Brewer’s 25%, with other candidates each taking home less than 20%.
Arizona’s new law makes it a crime for an immigrant to travel without their paperwork, and requires law enforcement officers to demand the papers of anyone they have a “reasonable suspicion” is in the country illegally.
The primary will be held Aug. 24. Brewer is running for her first full term. She replaced then-Gov. Janet Napolitano when she left to serve in the Obama administration.
