A new poll of registered voters in Kentucky throws more uncertainty into a Senate race that in just the last several days has featured polls showing Republican nominee Rand Paul way ahead or just a little ahead of Democratic nominee Jack Conway. The CNN/Time survey of 869 registered voters potentially changes that narrative entirely, showing Paul and Conway locked in a 46-46 tie.
Polling is always an inexact science, and nowhere is that more obvious than in Kentucky this week. It’s important to note that the new CNN/Time poll surveys registered voters, while the other public polls touted by Republicans this week (and showing Paul with a big lead) were taken among likely voters. In keeping with the story of the season, likely voters have tended to lean Republicanism heavily, which could explain the disparity between today’s CNN/Time poll showing the race to be a dead even and today’s Rasmussen poll showing Paul ahead by 15.
Regardless, the CNN/Time poll suggests the race in Kentucky is still potentially up in the air which should give a boost to Democrats hoping to score the upset win in the Bluegrass State. The TPM Poll Average shows Paul leading the race 47.1-41.4.