After months of work, a bipartisan group of senators working on immigration reform say they plan to finally release a draft of their legislation within the next week. But that’s only the beginning of the next phase of the reform debate as activists, lawmakers, and the broader public pick over the bill, senators pitch their own improvements, and the House considers whether it’s an acceptable model for its own legislation.
“I think that there’s obviously some strategic leaking going on, some of which gives us cause for concern, some of which makes us happy, some of which we just don’t know all of the details,” Frank Sharry, director of the pro-reform group America’s Voice, told reporters on a conference call Friday. “To a large extent we’re going to have to wait to see it all and fully analyze it.”
TPM compiled five of the biggest questions that reformers (and reform opponents) are waiting to see the answers to before they pass judgement on the bill.
1) Who Will Be Eligible For A Path To Citizenship?
The Senate group has made clear their bill will include a way for undocumented immigrants to eventually become citizens. But beyond that, there’s little information as to how easy the process will be.
The bill is expected to let undocumented immigrants who pass a background check and other requirements live and work legally in America for at least ten years on a provisional basis before they can apply for a green card, a prerequisite for citizenship. That’s a slower pace then some groups have pushed for, but not likely a dealbreaker. There’s also the question of the cutoff date for who’s eligible for legal status. According to the Associated Press, it’s likely to be December 31, 2011, which could leave some existing residents unable to apply. Illegal immigration levels have been very low since the 2008 financial collapse, however, so that would still cover the vast majority of the undocumented population.
The bill would also require them to go through the same legal immigration system as the rest of visa applicants, which is plagued by backlogs and only covers some categories of people. That means it’s very hard to judge how far-reaching the bill is until the actual language is out. Activists are encouraged this week by leaks in the New York Times suggesting the bill will dramatically revamp the existing legal system to eliminate the current line of 4.7 million visa applicants before newly legalized immigrants become eligible to apply themselves in future years.
2) How Do The Border Triggers Work?
The Senate bill will fund a series of new technologies and procedures aimed at enhancing border security, as would the White House’s leaked draft. But unlike the White House, the “Gang of 8” says they plan on trying citizenship for undocumented immigrants to the implementation of their border plan. That has administration officials and immigration activists worried that the metrics will be either too vague or too politicized to move to that next phase in the normalization process.
Angela Kelley, vice president for immigration at progressive think tank CAP, cautioned reporters on Friday that there’s still a lot of confusion over how the border sections will work. For example, there was a report that Congress would need to see that 90 percent of the border was under complete surveillance — a very high bar. But Kelley said her understanding was that the Department of Homeland Security only needed to release their plan for how to achieve it before immigrants could begin applying for a green card, which is a much easier step. Distinctions like this will play a major role in whether the pro-reform crowd warms to the bill.
3) What About Family Immigration?
For immigrant rights groups and church organizations especially, one of the biggest questions is whether the family immigration system will be expanded or limited in a bill. About two-thirds of green card recipients are brought in on family-based visas; and
prominent Republicans, including Sens. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) and Marco Rubio (R-FL), have suggested that the immigration system needs to be overhauled to bring in more people based on their professional skills instead. But it’s still unclear whether they want to expand the work-based visa system alone, or offset an increase in employment visas by reducing family visas.
“We are concerned that the compromise legislation could include a long and difficult road to citizenship that would prevent some of our members from applying for citizenship and delay citizenship for everyone by more than a decade,” Rev. Michael-Ray Mathews, director of clergy organizing for the pro-immigration PICO National Network, said in a statement on Friday. “Our people are also worried that weakening the family-based visa system would unnecessarily divide families.”
According to a report in the New York Times, the bill might eliminate the ability to sponsor siblings for green cards, but balance that restriction elsewhere by removing existing annual limits on the number of spouses and young children permanent residents can bring in on visas.
4) What’s It Going To Cost?
Republicans working on the bill have assured conservatives that they’re not going to blow up the deficit with their plan, citing studies that immigrant workers are a net economic boost and contribute more in taxes than they take in services. There’s also the question of how much funding they’ll provide for border security and, given current caps on spending in Congress, how they’ll pay for it.
“We do not intend to have the proposals that we are enacting be additional costs to the taxpayers of America,” Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) told TPM this week.
To help make their case, Rubio’s office says the bill will bar newly legalized immigrants from participating in the Affordable Care Act’s subsidized exchanges along with other federal benefit programs. The restriction will apply at least until they obtain a green card and, per one report in Yahoo, perhaps as long as 15 years.
5) What About LGBT Rights?
Gay rights groups have been agitating for any reform bill to include provisions that would pave the way for people to sponsor same-sex partners and spouses for visas, a practice that’s currently barred by the Defense of Marriage Act. But McCain doesn’t sound too interested in the idea and activists don’t have high hopes for the provision making it into a bill. There’s still the off-chance they can fit it into an amendment later, however.
“I think thats an issue that will be ripe for a senate floor fight, and I think that’s where we’ll see it play out,” Kelley said.
