Why The Fight Between Rick Perry And Rand Paul Actually Matters

FILE - This June 20, 2014 file photo shows Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky. speaking in Washington. Two leading Republicans have begun an unusually personal a war of words over foreign policy. The dispute between Kentucky Sen. ... FILE - This June 20, 2014 file photo shows Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky. speaking in Washington. Two leading Republicans have begun an unusually personal a war of words over foreign policy. The dispute between Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul and Texas Gov. Rick Perry highlights a broader divide within the GOP over international affairs in one of the first public clashes of the Republican Party’s looming presidential primary. (AP Photo/Molly Riley, File) MORE LESS
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The sharp exchange last weekend between Rick Perry and Rand Paul over Iraq — and more broadly, its relationship to the “Reagan legacy” in foreign policy — may have seemed like mid-summer entertainment to many observers, or perhaps just a food fight between two men thinking about running against each other for president in 2016. But from a broader perspective, we may be witnessing the first really serious division in the Republican Party over international affairs since the 1950s.

Republican unity on foreign policy and national security matters during the long period since “isolationists” and “internationalists” battled for party supremacy in the age of Taft and Dewey has been remarkable, particularly when compared to the frequent struggles among Democrats. The Donkey Party, after all, experienced major ruptures over Vietnam in the 1960s and early 1970s, and over Iraq in the early aughts, and less traumatic but significant bouts of dissension over the Nicaraguan contras and nuclear policy in the 1980s, and over the First Gulf War in 1991. Yes, there was scattered GOP opposition to LBJ’s and Nixon’s Vietnam policies and a brief conservative reaction against Nixon’s and Ford’s detente strategy with the Soviet Union. And throughout the period of consensus, there were small bands of paleoconservative and libertarian dissenters against Cold War and post-Cold War GOP orthodoxy. But unless you think Pat Buchanan’s paleoconservative foreign policy views were a significant spur to his occasionally impressive 1992 and 1996 primary challenges (I don’t), none of this dissent rose to the level of a real challenge to party leadership, and generally lay outside the mainstream of conservative opinion.

The current discussion of Iraq among Republicans should not obscure the fact that party elected officials dutifully lined up behind the Bush-Cheney drive for a “war of choice.” Ninety-seven percent of House Republicans and 98 percent of Senate Republicans voted for the resolution to authorize the invasion. Republican backing for the later “surge” was nearly that unanimous, despite rapidly eroding public support for the war. Indeed, John McCain’s identification with the “surge” was crucial in making him acceptable to rank-and-file conservatives in 2008.

The current argument being fronted by Perry and Paul is different in three important respects. First, public opinion among Republican voters over what to do right now in Iraq is notably divided, with (according to an ABC/Washington Post poll last month), 60 percent opposing the deployment of ground troops that the Cheneys are promoting and 38 percent opposing the air strikes Perry favors.

Second, this strain of GOP reluctance to embrace a fresh war in Iraq (supplemented by significant evidence of “buyer’s remorse” over the 2003 invasion) is not, like past anti-interventionist sentiment on Libya or Syria, just a function of reflexive opposition to Obama, whose position on Iraq is not that different from a majority of Republican voters.

And third, GOP divisions on foreign policy are very likely to sharpen as we move into the 2016 cycle, partially for competitive reasons but also because the candidates will be forced to project their own vision of America’s role in the world and not simply play off Obama’s record. And while Paul and Perry have staked out early and sharply divergent turf (as has to a lesser extent Marco Rubio, another neocon favorite), it’s possible other candidates will find intermediary positions–viz. Ted Cruz’s claim that he stands “halfway between” John McCain and Rand Paul on foreign policy. It will be quite the contrast from the 2012 cycle, in which the entire field lined up in support of traditional conservative positions favoring higher defense spending and aggressive confrontation with Iran, Russia and China, with the lonely exception of Rand’s father Ron.

Part of the different dynamic is that Paul the Younger has been much shrewder than the old man in making the case for a non-interventionist posture. While Ron Paul spent many precious minutes in a presidential debate explaining Iran’s hostility as the product of U.S. meddling in the 1950s, and let himself get baited by Middle Eastern hawks into frequent criticism of Israel, Rand has been careful to express nationalist belligerence in every circumstance that doesn’t require an intervention or major new spending (his labeling of legislation cutting off aid to the Palestinian Authority — a longstanding Paulite position — as the “Stand With Israel Act”, and his sudden silence on the equally longstanding call for eliminating aid to Israel as well, provide a good example).

One big question is whether Paul’s clever repositioning will make him invulnerable to the kind of generalized “isolationist” name-calling that Rick Perry aimed at him in his recent op-ed. Other rivals and opinion-leaders will undoubtedly come up with more deft criticisms. To outsiders, it may all sound confusing, since Paul and Perry (and earlier Cruz) claim equally to be implementing the foreign policy legacy of St. Ronald Reagan, giving the controversy the antiquarian air of a sixteenth century disputation among theologians over the teachings of the Church Fathers. But it’s serious business, and as Democrats know from their own eruptions of disagreement over world events, potentially dangerous.

Ed Kilgore is the principal blogger for Washington Monthly’s Political Animal blog, Managing Editor of The Democratic Strategist, and a Senior Fellow at theProgressive Policy Institute. Earlier he worked for three governors and a U.S. Senator. He can be followed on Twitter at @ed_kilgore.

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  1. The Gop/baggers are more of a threat to this nation than any Al Quaeda, Saddam, North Korea, has ever been…this is now a fight for survival of the United States…and the gop/baggers are more than willing to divide us, as a nation, than to govern responsibly…I know that the corporations call the shots in the gop, that is why this is even happening…the corruption of our political system by the very same groups, Wall Street, K street etc. that has been allowed to run wild, while the rest of us shoulder the load…Perry, Paul, Cruz are all corrupt puppets of the oligarchy…that is all we need to know about these guys…

  2. “One big question is whether Paul’s clever repositioning will make him invulnerable to the kind of generalized “isolationist” name-calling”

    What is going to make Paul relatively invulnerable is that the vast majority of the GOP base, as well as the American public, is firmly against returning to Iraq.

    The more telling question, which has yet to be answered, is Paul an isolationist or just against military interventions? Because so far, I haven’t heard Paul offering up much diplomatic advice for dealing with any of the world’s problems.

  3. Avatar for jw1 jw1 says:

    Appreciate the analysis in this piece.
    But neither of the two ‘candidates’ has the strategic depth intellectually to match.

    As for Paul’s invulnerability on this issue?
    If BHO doesn’t re-enter Iraq with boots on the ground in the next 27 months-- the electorate can most likely assume the next POTUS, almost certainly a (D)-- won’t be tempted to either.
    Thus rendering Paul’s position moot-- leaving him with rocks in his pockets-- and a bag full of nutty ideas that will not coalesce any more than just slivers of several fractured demographics.

    And my Gov Goodhair is a f^cking idiot.

    Which is why the Paul vs Perry spat is unimportant.

    jw1

  4. Avatar for opt opt says:
    Consistent historical experience says that, no, it really is the case that heightened GOP anti-interventionist sentiment is a function of there being a Democrat in charge of the military.  Anti-interventionist sentiment among Republicans was very high during the Clinton years and George W. Bush ran his 2000 campaign on a 'humbler' foreign policy, one that was less interventionist, where the US wouldn't be 'the world's sherriff'.  
    We've seen this movie before.  Conservatives are xenophobic, racist, right-wing authoritarians who outsource most of their thinking to corporate America.  When a Democrat is in office they try to impede every single aspect of their governance, including howls of condemnation of military and diplomatic actions. But the second a fellow right-wing authoritarian gets in office and the corporations that support him need an interventionist foreign action we're going to see a return to the preferred policy for dealing with foreigners.  Hell, most conservatives would support another major military engagement just to anger liberals.   Let us not kid ourselves. only a small fringe of Republicans are genuinely against 'interventionism' for even a second.  It's actually impossible for conservatives to be anti-interventionist for long if they are in control of the military. That's just not how their brains work.
  5. Avatar for spiff spiff says:

    Excellent …

    /C. Montgomery Burns

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