In response to today’s Backchannel, longtime TPM Reader LS wrote in to say that while she generally agreed with my evaluation of Kamala Harris’ campaign, she thought digesting the mechanics of campaigns were sort of beside the point now. The problems and the roots of Democrats’ defeat ran far deeper. I wrote back to tell her that I actually thought we were saying the same thing. Since there was probably similar unclarity with other readers I wanted to tell you more or less what I told her.

I wanted to note that quite a few of you have subscribed to TPM over the last 48 hours – currently more than 200 readers and continuing to rise. We get that people are exhausted, despondent, angry, and probably just tired of feeling so many things, none of them pleasant, all at once. Folks here feel many of the same things. I’ve spoken to you about our membership system at many points and in many ways over the years, about its importance and centrality. Today isn’t the time for us to be getting into that. What I wanted to say is that we greatly appreciate the show of support, the vote of confidence in our importance in the larger politico-media ecosystem, or simply in your world. Thank you.

From TPM Reader K …

Thanks for these reaction dispatches. This morning after reading the great discussions about the lack of a liberal or Democratic social media/current media landscape, I had a discussion with my 22-year-old son and wanted to add some commentary from a Gen Z (male) voice.

When asked why he (a Democratic Socialist who has reacted very emotionally to the election outcome) thought the younger male vote turned to Trump, he said this:

From TPM Reader JD …

As we all go through our collective grief processing, I just wanted to throw down three markers:

– It looks like the popular vote margin shifted by like 8 points from 2020 to 2024. The margin in the key battlegrounds looks more like a 2-3 point shift. Harris smoked Trump’s ground game. In a slightly less hostile national environment it would be her winning the EC while losing the PV. Unless the goal was to get votes in Chicago and the Bronx, neither Musk nor LaCivita’s grand schemes did anything. Cold comfort indeed, but good to bear in mind when we see the inevitable crowing. And also, personally, that is a much more dramatic ground game benefit than I imagined.

From TPM Reader AB …

Been reading these and thought I would throw in mine, even though in an ideal world we would mandate a cooldown period where everyone had to hold off a week for any takes.  So many of them seem to be either people lashing out because they’re upset and terrified or score settling for their particular hobbyhorse that they would be advocating for regardless of what the outcome had been.  It’s going to take another beat before we can find any constructive path forward.

As someone who has worked on abortion for a long time, I don’t think it’s fair to say that it doesn’t have electoral salience for Democrats.  While abortion was on the ballot in a lot of states, it wasn’t actually a large part of many federal campaign’s messaging.  There seems to have been an assumption that it would be self-evident, but that’s just not true, particularly because of the confusing  way it happened through the courts and technically under Biden. And a lot of Republican candidates flat out lied or fundamentally misrepresented their position on abortion in ways the media didn’t pick up.  I’m sure a lot of the people who voted for both abortion referenda and Trump genuinely thought they were picking a pro-choice candidate.  

From TPM Reader NL …

I just had to chime here because I am deeply worried that we will learn the wrong lessons from 2024. 

I understand Reader DS’s (#7) frustration with the outcome, but Reader AJ (#4) is much closer to the mark in my book. Look, 2024 was not a landslide for Trump. What makes 2024 so disappointing is that the map looks a lot like the House vote in 2022. Biden’s approval rating has basically been steady since late 2022. The economic conditions do not feel much different than 2022. Prices might not be rising, but they are pretty high relative to 3-4 years ago. Interest rates are high and housing is in short supply. A whopping 67% of people think the country is on the wrong track. Like many others, I thought the democracy argument would win the day. It did not. 

From TPM Reader CK …

I’ve been a reporter in North Carolina for 30 years, covering the coast and rural counties. For many months, and continuing to this day, there are millions and millions of dollars of Biden Infrastructure and IRA funds pouring into rural communities here for projects to address needs that have been neglected or ignored for decades: wastewater treatment system upgrades, removal of lead pipes in water systems;  repairs of rotting boardwalks and docks in small waterfront and fishing communities; mitigation of saltwater intrusion in farm fields, flood resilience in low-elevations; etc, etc. They’re all necessities that will result in real honest-to-god improvements in people’s lives. Virtually none of the beneficiaries — fishers, farmers, residents in communities vulnerable to sea level rise— have any idea that Biden was the reason they have those improvements, or will be getting them soon (when Trump will no doubt take credit.)  The Democrats and the administration should have been bragging constantly and everywhere about the funds and the economic recovery. Government subsidies have lifted a nascent renewables industry into a booming profitable job-creator. Again, the messaging to the public about all of these economic factors should have been short, sweet and constant.   And Kamala Harris should have included rebukes to Trump lies about the economy in her talking points. 

From TPM Reader LL …

Like everyone else in the TPM community, I’m still reeling from the recognition that a majority of voters (not just electors) chose Trump, knowing what he is and what he’s promising to bring to a second term.  Like you, I think Harris ran the best campaign she possibly could, or at least didn’t make any obvious mistakes.  I don’t know if I quite accept that she was dragged down by Biden’s unpopularity, though I also admit I still don’t really understand why Biden was so unpopular.  Was it his policies (which I for one thought were mostly really good for the country)?  Was it his inability to “message” his policies?  (a trope that’s haunted Democrats for as long as I can remember, I now see it as a bit of a canard or at least a truism.)  Was it Gaza?  

In any case, as in 2016, I see a perfect storm of factors, rather than one in particular, that led to Trump’s victory.  Some of them overlapped with those of 2016 (media complicity, information/disinformation silos, sexism), some of them were new (the pandemic; Gaza), and some of the 2016 factors weren’t present this time (mainly the long shadow of the right’s pathological obsession with Hillary Clinton).  But then, as now, the one big factor I think we on the left continue to underestimate because it’s anathema to us, is Trump’s very real, very potent reptilian appeal.