Josh Marshall
Update III: This is still sketchy reporting. But reporters are going back to listen closely to the Secret Service chatter in real time. They appear to hear one volley of shots, then Trump goes down. Then there’s another volley and Secret Service appear to say “shooter down.” Again, this is all choppy real-time reporting, possibly subject to change. But this would possibly explain why there was such a rapid all clear only a minute or two after the incident happened. CNN’s John Miller said he thought there was someone in custody. But again, early reporting subject to change.
Update II: Further reporting on CNN that Trump is “fine,” apparently getting checked out at a local hospital. But all signs suggest this is just a once over as opposed to getting specific medical treatment. But again, that’s speculation. The statement from spokesperson Steven Cheung is that he is “fine” and getting examined. It’s worth remembering that not infrequently in situations like this there can be injuries that aren’t detected at first. So doctors will want to do a thorough examination.
Update: Secret Service says former president is “safe”.
Original Alert: As you may have seen there appears to have been a shooting of some sort at a Trump rally just a very short time ago. Let me say what we know. A Trump rally was just underway in Butler, PA. There were a series of loud bangs. Trump appeared to grab his right ear and dropped to the ground. Dropped in the sense of jumped for cover, not collapsed. He was then swarmed by Secret Service agents and hustled to his armored limousine. As he was hustled off the stage he was clearly fully alert. He appeared to have blood around his right ear, which is the part of the body he appeared to grab as things were happening.
It appears that someone fired shots at Trump, though we don’t know that yet.
Another detail is that authorities appeared to quickly give an all clear to the crowd after Trump was taken from the scene. That would seem to suggest that whoever did this was captured very quickly. Though to be clear, that part is purely an inference on my part.
At present there is no official word on Trump’s status, though I want to emphasize that Trump did not appear in any way incapacitated or injured as he was taken away beside the blood on the ear. He appeared to be walking fully under his own power but surrounded by Secret Service agents providing a cordon around him as he was evacuated.
We will bring you more information as we learn more.
I’ve done so many big picture posts in recent days I’m going to let myself do a more zoomed in one. In all the antic craziness of the last two weeks we’ve seen a number of people, either cheering or dreading, saying that not only will Joe Biden lose but he’ll bring down Congress and all sorts of down ballot Democrats. I believe, just intuitively, that these claims are almost all the product of media hysteria, in some cases fanned by Trump campaign trash talk. But if you look down at the nitty gritty of public and private polling there’s something more specific happening, a set of data mixed with non-crazy but still possible assumptions.
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The Labors of Biden 
Yesterday I heard from TPM Reader GZ in response to the Backchannel email newsletter. (I always encourage you to write to me. You can do so simply by replying to my newsletter. Comes right to my personal inbox.) “Even though you aren’t saying Joe should drop out you are participating in the fun of talking about it,” he wrote. “Giving air to negativity.”
I think a lot of people are having fun with this. Many of the most prominent journalistic voices. But I felt the need to correct the misapprehension. “If you think I’m participating in any fun you gravely mistake my thoughts and profound anguish over this … The last two weeks have been pure agony,” I wrote. As I went on to explain, I don’t get into my personal experience of any of this because it’s simply not relevant to what I’m writing. But I took both sides of this exchange as examples of the toll this extended and seemingly frozen crisis has had on so many people.
Today I have been corresponding with a number of readers about, well … what’s happening? Like, some want this and some want that. But everyone is wondering wtf is happening or, to put it more specifically, why the whole thing hasn’t been decided yet.
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Gut Checks and Decisions
Just in the last hour or two there was a rush of new articles which report that top people in the Biden campaign either think Biden won’t be able to hold on or that he has no path to victory, etc. In a way, these are all versions of the same thing, or one inevitably relies on the other. I think the real issue is that a presidential candidate simply can’t lose the confidence of his or her congressional party. Why that happens or whether it’s fair doesn’t really matter after a certain point. Or rather it doesn’t matter in an operative way. And it does appear we are either at that point or near to it.
There are two additional points I want to note. They may seem contradictory and they are at least in tension. But I think they’re both true.
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Notes from the Political Tornado
When we collectively wrestle with a situation like the one Democrats are now grappling with, it is important to remember that multiple things can be true at once. I’ve spent most of the day thinking that Joe Biden has very much not ended this “drop out” question — which I kind of thought he had by Monday evening — and thinking that withdrawing in favor of Kamala Harris may be the least worst bad option available. But there are a couple dynamics I want to mention that are helpful to think about.
One issue I’ve written about is the disjuncture here between elite responses to this political tornado and the responses of ordinary voters. This turns out not to be specific enough. All of the information I’ve gotten on this is anecdotal. But some anecdotes are better and more valuable than others. It seems clear to me that quite a few ordinary Democratic voters want Biden to step aside. I’ve published some of their emails below. I really have no idea what the relative percentages are. But it’s certainly not like the Clinton-Lewinsky scandal where DC political elites rapidly developed an iron consensus that Clinton had to resign and then realized that there was an angry and large majority of regular Democrats saying absolutely f—king not.
Read MoreA fairly vitriolic note from TPM Reader JD …
Read MoreJust to be clear, I was absolutely on team Biden is the nominee and anything else is crazy before the debate. And I’ve tried to be measured in my emails since, but I’m kind of reaching my limit with the Ridin for Bidens. So this is for all the readers who think the solution is uniting behind Biden because of dominance politics or whatever: you cannot construct some facade of strength around a man who is so evidently, pitifully weak. Not in an election in a democracy where he has to actually appear in public. What do you think the rest of this campaign is going to be like after the Democrats fall in line? Just for starters, what do you think’s gonna happen with this next debate in September?
From TPM Reader WH …
Read MoreI echo AO’s sentiment. While I agree with yesterday’s Morning Memo that the coverage has morphed into a feeding frenzy that’s lost sight of the bigger picture, the Biden team totally blew any chance they had at a reset following the debate. All of the endorsements and kumbayas came days late, and what we have seen lately feels insipid and clumsy. Leaning heavily upon the big group of Democratic voters that’s currently uneasy about Joe dropping out will not solidify the coalition, whereas the only remaining opportunity to get everybody on the same page isBiden himself making it clear that defeating Trump and his agenda is a collective priority that’s bigger than any individual.
From TPM Reader SS …
Read MoreI didn’t watch the debate for various reasons (was on vacation and busy with kids.). From the clips I saw, yeah it wasn’t good. When I heard about the subsequent rallies I relaxed a bit and went on with the rest of our vacation. Then I came back…
From TPM Reader JH …
Read MoreI’m writing because I’m not sure I get the panic and hysteria some of your very smart readers are showing about Biden.
From TPM Reader BR …
Read MoreI was hoping with AOC’s statement and the CBC backing Biden the other day we’d be converging on riding with Biden through the end.
I don’t care who the nominee is, I just want to win, and it made sense to me that Biden is it. In the last 24 hours a bunch of prominent Dems, elected and not, purposefully and not, undid the last week of progress towards that goal. That more than anything takes away my hope for the election. Biden stumbling didn’t bother me though it was his fault for creating this mess — he can, as he says, get back up — and as long as folks back him up and put in the work then we win.