We’ve had this running question for months about just what happens if the U.S. Treasury runs out of funds to meet all the government’s spending obligations. To be clear, those include ordinary spending as well as servicing of the principal of and interest on the U.S. debt. Secretary Yellen went on CNBC this afternoon and I think we got the first piece of an answer. It was a long interview, mostly about other aspects of the economy. But she discussed the debt ceiling standoff at the beginning. Here’s the key passage.

Ross Douthat makes several decent points in this column on 2016 déjà vu before coming around to what seems to be his real point: Trump’s getting a leg up because “the press” actually wants him back. “[A]t some half-conscious level the mainstream press really wants the Trump return. It wants to enjoy the Trump Show’s ratings; it wants the G.O.P. defined by Trumpism while it defines itself as democracy’s defender.”

To be fair to Douthat, he does say leading up to those lines that if Trump is renominated it’s ultimately on GOP primary voters. Fair enough. But I really don’t buy this. Yesterday, HuffPost’s S.V. Date wrote that the U.S. press has failed its responsibilities by not putting front and center in all coverage of the man the reality of Jan. 6. This is true. Every general press account of Trump should begin with a descriptor something like “Donald Trump, the former president who staged an unsuccessful coup after being defeated in the 2020 election …”

But even this failure isn’t the same as wanting him back. I simply don’t think this is true even for the silliest and most conventional of national political reporters.

A small detail in the context of the latest mass shooting, this time in Allen, Texas. Eight people dead, including children. (The gunman was also shot to death by a police officer who happened to be at the mall for reasons unrelated to the shooting.) That detail is Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, just the worst kind of racist degenerate who somehow has managed to become the de facto leader of House Republicans in the new Congress.

This morning Greene went on Twitter to note that the shooter “appears Hispanic” and had what she decided “looks like a gang tattoo on his hand.” And then added “Title 42 ends on Thursday and CBP says 700,000+ migrants are going to rush the border.”

Over the last day or so, the D.C. insider sheets have had some interesting details about the GOP’s positioning and doubts about the debt-limit hostage-taking standoff. Senate Republicans especially are pushing to punt on the crisis for 30 days or so. Publicly, they’re siding with McCarthy and only a few have vaguely floated the idea. But for a lot of non-die-hards there’s clearly a mood of Can we take a time out? or Can we get a little more time to plan our hostage-crisis so you get blamed?

The White House obviously has little incentive to help Republicans out with their self-created crisis planning, though OMB Director Shalanda Young didn’t categorically rule it out.

But other Republicans have come up with a different way of extending the deadline: simply say the deadline is later. Two nights ago, Axios reported that many Republicans simply don’t believe the government will run out of money in early June.

“Nobody believes her. I don’t believe her,” said Sen. Kennedy, referring to Janet Yellen’s June estimate.

Many GOP lawmakers think they have until July or August.

Did you see the latest Clarence Thomas bombshell? To head off any misunderstanding, let me state that I know with a perfect certainty that Thomas will never be removed from the Court. And while it is theoretically possible he could resign, the odds of that happening are roughly equivalent of finding sentient life on Mars. But that doesn’t take any of the punch away from the news that Thomas had a child (a grandnephew for whom the Thomases became legal guardians) at private school and Harlan Crow picked up the tab for the tuition.

I want to take a moment to chart the trajectory of these revelations.

Yesterday, the Times published an article reporting that Biden administration officials have an active discussion about whether the debt-ceiling law is unconstitutional and thus whether President Biden has the right and the duty to disregard it rather than default on the government’s debt and spending obligations. That along with Secretary Yellen’s June 1 announcement hit like a thunderclap against D.C.’s conventional wisdom about how this drama plays out. On a dime the insider newsletters decided that this probably isn’t going to be settled by a simple negotiation, or maybe any negotiation. The extraordinary measures a lot of us have been talking about for some time suddenly started to seem real to them too. The addition of the June 1 quasi-deadline signaled to still others that there probably isn’t time for a negotiated settlement even if the administration decided to negotiate.

Put that together and we seem to be in a new place on this just in the last day or so.

As we hurtle toward the entirely House-GOP-created debt ceiling crisis, I wanted to address some issues which are technical but also really important to understanding how this story can play out and what’s involved.

What exactly happens when the debt limit is hit?

Good question. Indeed, that’s the question. The U.S. government brings in a ton of money every month. Just not enough to pay all the obligations that it is bound to pay by statute law. So really there’s no reason that the U.S. government can’t continue to cover the principal and interest on its debt obligations from now until the end of time without ever having to borrow more money. There’s plenty of money. But other things will have to go unpaid.

The fact that one or more of the Supreme Court Justices appear to be venally corrupt in a rather fulsome fashion is a new addition to the story of the early 21st century. But the heart of it remains this: The current corrupt majority wants to wholly remake American law with little attention to precedent or any coherent jurisprudence or theory of interpreting the constitution. They’ve got the power and they’re going to use it. If you don’t like it, too bad. Yet they also want the deference and respect accorded to thoroughly apolitical players guided by restraint and an approach to the work that is more than dressing up their own policy aims with whatever theory serves the needs of the moment.

Just out from the U.S. Treasury and Secretary Yellen …

“After reviewing recent federal tax receipts, our best estimate is that we will be unable to continue to satisfy all of the government’s obligations by early June, and potentially as early as June 1 …”

We’re now bearing down on crunch time in the debt-ceiling hostage-taking drama of 2023. Virtually all of the establishment press is playing to form and treating the situation as a more or less ordinary matter of legislative jockeying and negotiation. That’s a problem but not a surprise. We’ll discuss that in another post. But this morning I want to talk about something different, the story that most commentators aren’t grasping about where this situation is headed. It’s a set of assumptions that is leading most of D.C. — and, it would appear, most of Wall Street — to miss what’s coming.