I recommend reading Josh Kovensky’s run-down on Russian threats to expand the Ukraine War to the breakaway region of Transnistria. To understand just what this is about you have to have a grip on the geography. So I’m going to momentarily focus on that. But I do so to illustrate a larger point about the state of the Ukraine war.

To start off, Transnistria is another of those breakaway separatist statelets which is recognized by Russia and basically no one else. It’s part of Moldova, another former Soviet successor state couched, landlocked, between Ukraine and Romania. Transnistria is a stretched-out slice of land along Moldova’s border to Ukraine, which is to the east. So to situate ourselves in some ways it mirrors the separatist statelets Russia sponsored along the Russian border in eastern Ukraine. Only in this case the separatist statelet in the eastern part of Moldova borders not Russia but Ukraine.

From TPM Reader MB …

“all so that moderate Dems. would have something – anything – to show voters that they deserve to hold onto power.”

This illustrates the reasons for paralysis perfectly.  The party is frozen because there are people vying for control who have wildly different calibrations, perceptions and expectations.  The above quote just completely ignores and dismisses the idea that BIF is something everyone in the party, progressives included, should be able to celebrate and claim credit for (so long as they voted for it, but we’ll get to that).  It’s a victory.  It’s going to help people and our economy.  It is a measurable social good and a demonstrable benefit to society.  Sure, it’s not a unicorn…maybe even looks a little more mule than horse…but it’s still a positive thing. 

From TPM Reader JS …

I like Biden. I took shit from my friends for being for him in the primary. We wanted someone who could win and he did win, Trump gone. He took control of Congress. He passed an infrastructure bill, ended a 20 year war, tons of jobs, COVID is over, appointed a great judge to the Supreme Court, and has done more than anyone else outside of Ukraine to turn the tables on the expected Russian victory that I see as either an incipient WW3 or at the very least a flashpoint in the new Authoritarian vs. Liberalism Cold War. I don’t care about the fact he isn’t a great orator. I’m dismissive of claims he’s too old. He’s done a great job if you look at it from an Al Gore debate counting on my finger policy debate way, which I do.

From TPM Reader DF …

I appreciate the sentiments of RS and PT regarding the impact of BBB’s failure on Dem morale, but it’s not an excuse for the abject failure of the national Democratic Party to not only launch an effective midterm campaign, but defend themselves and their voters. That’s not a result of BBB; it’s a deliberate decision from Biden’s political team to “lower the temperature” that has filtered down to the national party.

I would not say it is surprising that we’ve gotten a lot of emails on this “single point of failure” conversation we’re having. After all, it’s really the central issue about what happened in 2021 and why and what that means for the future of the Democratic party and the country. But even with all that, wow … it’s like a flood of emails. And that’s wonderful. I’m going to be publishing more throughout the day. But I’ve developed a feel over the years for the scale and pace of reader emails and this has really struck a nerve. Not a surprise, no. But still stands out.

From TPM Reader SC …

I agree with you on “single point of failure”. I spent most of last year hoping you were right that BBB in some form would pass but also fearing it might not. I put on a pretty good false bravado about it passing; I didn’t fully believe it.

What got my goat was this “trifecta” nonsense.The Democrats NEVER had both houses of Congress. They NEVER had more than nominal control. And therefore it is silly to blame “The Democratic Party” as if it was some monolith. It never was.

Everyone is breathing a sigh of relief if not for the fact that Emmanuel Macron won the French election than the fact that Marine Le Pen was defeated — and fairly handily. You can be cheered that he won with almost 60% of the vote or sobered by the fact that she got more than 40% and significantly increased her 2017 margin. To me the more striking reality is that there now seems to be in effect two parties in France — a big-tent civic democratic party and a rightist nationalist, revanchist party. The former is winning the elections for now. But no one wins every election.

In 2017 it all seemed contingent. But now it seems more like the norm, the structure of French politics as opposed to a one off situation driven by a series of surprise events.

From TPM Reader EF …

Like many others, I am disappointed and frustrated that BBB did not pass or that Manchin played Lucy with the football so that he could occupy center stage for a year.  I also worry about the demoralizing effects of the process.  But, c’mon folks, get real.  FDR had 70 senators when the New Deal was passed.  Obama barely got the ACA passed with 60 (and then 59 after Kennedy died near the finish line).  Getting BBB done in even its skinnier form was always a longshot with a tied Senate. 

TPM Reader RS responds to PT and myself on the single point of failure …

What both you, Josh, and reader PT failed to point out explicitly was that every Democratic leader – President Biden, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and Speaker Nancy Pelosi – said repeatedly and publicly, that these two bills, BIF and BBB, were linked. That both would pass Congress or neither would reach the President’s desk. Biden even said that he would only sign BIF if BBB also passed both houses of Congress.

They ALL LIED, and unlike GOP voters, there are electoral consequences for blatantly lying to Democratic voters.

From TPM Reader PT …

You and numerous other observers have commented on the peculiar passivity of the Democrats going into what was always going to be a challenging midterm election, which will of course be even more challenging if they don’t really make much of an effort to contest it. What could be responsible for this malaise in the party?

tl;dr: Joe Manchin.