We have two big developments this morning. The first is that in a televised exchange with his top military leaders, President Putin ordered the country’s strategic nuclear forces on alert in response to Western sanctions and what he called “threatening statements” from leaders in Europe. That means as little and as much you think. It underscores that while the punishing sanctions unveiled yesterday are merited this is nevertheless a spectacularly dangerous international crisis. Not just dangerous in Ukraine but for the whole world. At the same time, Russia and Ukraine have agreed to hold peace talks near the border with Belarus. They are talks without preconditions.

One curious feature of social media is that we actually have lots of detailed and close up imagery and information about particular military engagements. But it remains hard, at least for me, to get a clear view of the overall picture of what is happening right now in Ukraine.

The Ukrainian government has released a number of figures about alleged Russian combat fatalities, which are very high. But it’s hard to know what to make of those numbers. Combat armies have a notoriously hard time estimating their adversaries’ casualties and fatalities. And the Ukrainians, involved in an existential battle, have plenty of very understandable incentives to make those numbers high.

I’ve had a number of TPM Readers ask me via email today who they should be following on Twitter for real time updates. This is the list I’m following on Twitter. It’s a mix of just under a hundred reporters, diplomats, heads of state and region experts I put together and am following.

There must have been many moments over recent days when President Zelensky said to himself, “How the fuck did I get here?” As most of you know, Zelensky was a comedian and an actor. His presidency was kind of a lark. My memory my fail me here but I believe his big claim to fame was a show in which he played a fictional President of Ukraine. So his whole candidacy had a meta/absurdist tinge to it and likely was only possible in a country in which much of the population regards the political class as hopelessly corrupt. And yet Zelensky now finds himself in a position in which he will either preside over the dissolution of the independent Ukrainian state or, if things go very differently, probably be regarded as something like a founding father of it.

I wanted to note this report that Ukraine has essentially opened its armories to civilian volunteers. They claim to have given out up to 10,000 automatic weapons today to citizens willing to fight as home guards or essentially paramilitaries and irregulars. This makes perfect sense for how this conflict is evolving. It is clearly an existential battle for the Ukrainian state. But I just wanted to focus in on what this means. This means giving out machine guns to any Ukrainian citizens who are ready to kill Russian soldiers. This is an invitation to the kind of merciless and bloody urban warfare that insurgents and irregulars excel at and which regular armies struggle with. Don’t get me wrong. If I were running Ukraine I would be doing this too. Watching ordinary Ukrainians, in various ways, put their lives on the line to fight back against this entirely unprovoked aggression inspires me. But I just want to focus in on how dark and desperate a situation this is. This is to-the-death kind of fighting. Where who is military and who is civilian is totally blurred. It’s a level of ferocity you don’t easily come back from.

Through my writing over recent weeks I’ve tried to keep up a secondary focus on the decisions the U.S. made about the Soviet Union, Russia and NATO during the 1990s. I think this is only a secondary part of the story. But it’s a part. In those debates we hear about Russia’s security concerns about NATO enlargement. I think it’s important to be specific and clear about what these security concerns really amount to.

I’ve written relatively little over recent days on the unfolding Ukraine Crisis. It’s one of those stories that is not only moving quickly but in many ways speaks for itself. I recommend reading Josh Kovensky’s latest report on events. Josh worked in Ukraine as a journalist for two or three years before coming to TPM, so he brings an area knowledge and access to the language that we’re lucky to have. As I’ve mentioned a few times, I’ve been using this Twitter list to navigate the rush of events. I recommend it. I also shared some thoughts on what’s happening in the edition of the podcast that comes out today.

One of the assumptions in much Ukraine commentary is that a full scale Russian invasion of the country would be followed at some point by what would, over time, be a potentially ruinous insurgency. That seems probable. And I suspect it’s the key reason — much more than even the most extreme sanctions — why Russia has so far held back from such a move. Even apart from the bad history of Great Powers getting bogged down in occupations of hostile territory, the military reforms under President Putin, which have revived Russia’s conventional military power, have prioritized rapid strike capabilities over holding territory. Such a scenario would be a catastrophe for Ukraine but it would likely be pretty bad for Russia too.

But this article in Foreign Policy shows how easily this scenario could bleed into a confrontation between Russia and NATO, even though neither side would have any interest in it doing so.

A key point here that I want to make sure everyone sees. As Josh Kovensky explains here, President Putin of Russia said today that Russia has recognized the breakaway eastern statelets on the full territories they claim. That is substantially more Ukrainian territory than these statelets (and their Russian backers) currently control. As Josh explained to me this morning, the two statelets claim the entire territories of the official Ukrainian oblasts (provinces) of Luhansk and Donetsk. But they only control between a third and half of that territory. So if you follow the logic of the events of the last 48 hours, Ukraine is currently occupying lots of land belonging to these two purported republics Russia now recognizes. And Russia could reconquer that territory as a defensive action on their behalf. Because, you know, they just want to help out.

Whether they’ll actually do this is another question. But it’s a claim with high and dangerous relevance to the current situation.

For the latest, follow our live blog here and my curated Twitter feed of Ukraine Crisis developments here.

There’s a flurry of commentary this morning arguing that new economic sanctions introduced by the EU, European states individually and perhaps soon the United States in response to yesterday’s events are too weak and show NATO and the EU are somehow going soft. I’d suggest some skepticism with these arguments and a bit more patience. History doesn’t have many one and done moments. Thinking every moment is Munich and Neville Chamberlain mostly makes people dumb. The U.S./EU/NATO powers here need to find a balance between having a response to yesterday’s events while yet keeping some deterrent in reserve for further escalation.