Bob Ney – Dead Man RunningTom DeLay, a.k.a. “Representative #2,” bowed out Monday… So why is Rep. Bob Ney (R-OH), a.k.a. “Representative #1,” still around?
Let’s count the nails in his coffin.
He’s been very clearly and damningly implicated in three separate guilty pleas (Michael Scanlon, Jack Abramoff, and Tony Rudy). Prosecutors have told him they’re preparing a case against him. His former aide, Neil Volz, is also in prosecutors’ sights, and it seems it’s just a matter of time before he flips on his old boss. Polls in Ohio show him running behind the Democratic candidates. And he was brusquely forced from his chairmanship of the House Administration Committee when Republicans realized his end was near.
So why hasn’t he realized that?
There seem to be two answers. Well, three, if you believe that he believes that he’s innocent. But really two.
The best guess is that he’s going to repeat Tom DeLay’s stunt of sticking out the Republican primary before dropping out. Why? Because, as Chris Cilizza points out, like DeLay, he faces a small-time opponent in the primary. If Ney dropped out now, his opponent James Brodbelt Harris, a financial analyst who’s never run for office, would take the seat. The GOP would much prefer to handpick their candidate than bank their chances on a rookie.
The primary is May 2nd. If Ney imitated DeLay (who dropped out three weeks after winning his primary), he’ll bow out sometime in mid- to late May.
Others have speculated that he’s holding on to his seat because his only leverage against prosecutors is that he’s a member of Congress. Overall, his situation looks very bleak: prosecutors seem to have a very strong case against him, and it doesn’t seem that he has anyone else to give prosecutors in order to lighten his sentence. His slipping hold on power is all he has. From Roll Call earlier this week:
…a Republican strategist close to the House leadership suggested that Ney is only holding onto his seat in order to strengthen his bargaining position in any future negotiations with the Justice Department.
“The only leverage he has is as a Member of Congress,” said this strategist. “If he retires, he has no power.”
So… will Ney hold on to the bitter end? Or will the pressure from the GOP to drop out of the race grow so strong in May that he’ll be forced to give in?
Stay tuned.
