We are still, bizarrely, having to make sense of the Iran-U.S. “deal” on the basis of two or three different texts which are circulating on an unofficial basis. Meanwhile, the U.S., at least, refuses to release the text of the so-called “memorandum of understanding.” The Iranians are being somewhat more forthcoming, at least through their quasi-official state news agencies. But President Trump being a pathological liar shouldn’t obscure the fact that the Iranian regime is rather less than a reliable narrator. There’s surprisingly little public discussion in the United States about what conceivable good rationale there is for keeping the agreement secret while the White House is at least nominally trying to build public support for it. How can you know whether the deal is a good deal if you don’t know what the deal is? This is not a rhetorical question.
We’re now seeing Republican senators blanching at the prospect of giving Iran what amounts to a $300 billion care package and dramatically ramping down or ending sanctions. That suggests to me that those parts of the deal — rumored for days — are real. Otherwise, they wouldn’t be saying that. What’s not clear to me is whether the sanctions relief and gift packages start flowing at the front end or the backend, something that matters a great deal because of the last point I want to make.
The best way to see this is that none of the further negotiation parts of this deal are going to happen. Those provide each side, but especially the U.S. with a figleaf to sell their respective publics. This is really just an agreement to stop. The U.S. will have achieved none of its strategic objectives but will have done significant damage to Iran’s military and economy. Iran meanwhile has suffered a huge amount of economic damage — destroyed factories, destroyed supply chains, etc. But they survived and they’ve demonstrated that they can shut off the Strait of Hormuz at any time they choose. That’s a deterrent far greater than a few nuclear weapons.
