Democrats on Track to Avoid Being Locked out of Power in California Governor’s Race

Democrats seem to have avoided the nightmare scenario in California: with just under 60 percent of the vote in, only one Republican is currently poised to make it to the general election. 

Just a couple months ago, the two Republican candidates in the race were polling first and second, threatening a Democratic lockout. In California’s jungle primary, the top two vote getters proceed to the general election regardless of party. Democrats fielded more than 20 candidates in the race, dividing voters.

As of Wednesday afternoon, Republican former Fox News host Steve Hilton leads with 28 percent of the vote, followed by Democrats former HHS Secretary Xavier Becerra at 25 percent and billionaire Tom Steyer at 20 percent. The other Republican, sheriff Chad Bianco, is well behind at 11 percent. President Trump’s April endorsement of Hilton helped avert the threat to Democrats, as the Republican vote coalesced behind him.

If Hilton and Becerra finish in the top two, Becerra is all but guaranteed to become the state’s first Latino governor since 1875. While Hilton would have virtually no shot at the top job, his presence on the ballot would likely help downballot Republicans in competitive House races. 

If the remaining vote dumps are particularly Steyer friendly, he could eke his way into the top two. He would be similarly very well positioned in a race against Hilton.

Should the remaining votes be so Democratic that Hilton gets bumped, Steyer and Becerra will battle it out until November.

California is notoriously slow at counting votes, with Election Day sometimes turning into election week. Later-counted votes are often late-arriving mail-in ballots, and tend to be more Democratic. 

Both Becerra and Steyer (but especially Becerra) benefitted enormously at the end of the race from a primary hallmarked by shocking self-destruction. Former Rep. Katie Porter (D-CA), the early frontrunner, never recovered her standing after clips of her berating a staffer and walking out of an interview circulated online. Then former Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-CA), who seemed to be on the rise in the spring, crashed out of the race and politics in general when multiple women came forward to accuse him of sexual assault and misconduct.

From the rubble emerged a suddenly surging Becerra — the most experienced politician on the ticket, if a less than dynamic campaigner — and Steyer — the self-professed class traitor with deep enough pockets to keep himself in the running.