The Purple Poll, a survey of twelve swing states that will likely determine the Presidential election, shows President Barack Obama tied with former Mass. Gov. Mitt Romney at 45 percent. Obama leads former House Speaker Newt Gingrich by two points in the same sample.
Purple Strategies, the firm that conducts the monthly survey, said in their analysis the President is doing better, but the data shows he’s still in a weak position for an incumbent President.
Nonetheless, based on traditional metrics, Obama remains in perilous position. He is overperforming his approval rating by 4 points (he gets 45% of the vote against Romney, while 41% offer him a positive job rating), and still remains well below 50%. In recent re-election campaigns, no President has out-performed his job ratings by more than a couple of points.
Moreover, Obama trails among independent voters by 3 points against Romney, and by a point against Gingrich.
