Congress is back in session, but we’re continuing what began as a recess-time series of evening briefings on the reconciliation negotiations. Check in here to find out how the sausage-making is going.
Weeks passed when the reconciliation bill seemed dead, stalled out by Sens. Joe Manchin (D-WV) and Kyrsten Sinema’s (D-AZ) refusal to engage in specifics. On Tuesday, that dynamic changed very quickly, as the reconciliation package lurched back to life.
Details from President Joe Biden’s conversations with lawmakers leaked out, shading in an outline of a plan in the $1.9 trillion neighborhood. Democrats continue to say today that they think a framework — with a topline number and major programmatic elements — could be agreed to as soon as Friday.
In or Out of the Package
In (for now)
- The child tax credit, extended only a year or two
- Affordable Care Act subsidies
- Paid family leave (for four weeks, instead of 12)
- Homecare for elderly and disabled (less than $250 billion, down from the original $400 billion)
- Universal pre-K
Out (for now)
- Two years of tuition free community college
- Lifting cap on SALT
- Clean Electricity Performance Program
- Carbon tax
Outstanding Questions
- Even while Democrats are getting closer to an agreement than they’ve been in months, some pieces don’t yet fit.
- One of those is climate — with the CEPP off the table, it’s hard to tell how Democrats could possibly fill such a large gap.
- Sen. Tina Smith (D-MN) told TPM today that really only the carbon tax (which Manchin opposes) could do such heavy lifting alone. “Other options can make a big difference, but it would take more than one of them,” she said.
- Another is how to pay for it. Even as moderates like Sinema require that the package be paid for, she is single-handedly taking a huge revenue stream off the table by reportedly blocking all tax increases on businesses and the wealthy. That has the White House scrambling to find other ways to raise the money.
View Beyond Reconciliation
- While reconciliation has been sucking up all the oxygen in the chamber, the possibility of its impending passage has senators thinking about other priorities — namely, voting rights. Republicans filibustered the Freedom to Vote Act Wednesday, pushing the filibuster debate back to the fore.
- Key quote: “Staff can do a lot of it once the senators have said, ‘here’s the top line, here’s the basic programmatic elements,’” Sen. Tim Kaine (D-VA) told TPM of the reconciliation package. “People will work on turning that into actual legislative language and that will give us an opportunity to look at voting rights.”
Part of the problem with carbon pricing is the thinness of markets for carbon credits. Some carbon pricing schemes use very low values and hand out allowances to important industries, so the price of a ton of carbon emissions is yet to be settled. Moving forward, the EU should have a robust carbon pricing scheme in place by 2035, with incremental marks they have to start hitting from 2026. Even China is trying to figure out the price for a ton of carbon in its emissions trading system, which seeks to have at least 40% of emissions covered under the scheme in the first phase. California has a modest cap-and-trade experiment, and we should see some pricing of allowances at auction next month. The point of such artifices, of course, would be to reach a point in decarbonization where you wouldn’t need such markets. Biden got it right today when he described solar installations with 7 days of backup battery storage for residential housing. It’s a nice layer of resilience that lowers carbon emissions over the long term.
The greedy money-grubbers aren’t interested.
Are many hurricanes, tornadoes, and floods are too much?
I’m guessing the Democratic electorate is gonna be exhausted when this is done. Probably not gonna be much taste for any more bargaining with Manchin or Sinema either.
I’m sick of both of them and thinking about who I want to support and start donating to for next year’s elections. Val Demings (FL), Tim Ryan (OH), primary Sinema campaign and Congressmen/women who need it most. Researching the latter. Is Kelly up for re-election in AZ. If so, he’s on my list. How about other commenters put up their favorites?
Yes Mark Kelly is up for election in 2022. We must make sure he gets the support he deserves!