The new Rasmussen poll of New Jersey finds that the race continues to be a dead heat — and that a lot could hinge on the potential final movements of Daggett voters.
As was done last week, respondents were initially asked for first preferences between Democrat Jon Corzine, Republican Christ Christie, and independent Chris Daggett. Those who answered Daggett were then given a follow-up question of whether they were sure — an attempt to measure the usual drop-off that third-party candidates have — and their possible new votes were then distributed.
The initial preference, provided to me by Scott Rasmussen: Corzine 37%, Christie 36%, Daggett 16%, and 11% undecided, with a ±4% margin of error. After Daggett supporters were re-questioned, and other leaners were pushed, it became Christie 41%, Corzine 39%, Daggett 11%.
Last week, Corzine and Christie were tied 38%-38% on initial preferences, with Daggett at 16%, and second questioning yielded a Christie lead of 45%-41%-9%.
From the pollster’s analysis:
Measuring the ultimate impact of third-party candidates is always challenging. Many voters initially say they support an independent option and then change their minds as Election Day nears. That’s because they eventually decide to vote for the lesser of two evils among the major party candidates.
However, Daggett’s support may be solidifying more than most independent options. Many Garden State voters have already decided against voting for Corzine, and many are having are (sic) hard time deciding whether they can pull the lever for a Republican.
