Nevada kept former Vice President Joe Biden’s hopes alive.
While only a small percentage of precincts have actually reported full vote tallies to the Nevada Democratic Party, multiple news outlets called the Nevada caucuses for Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) early Saturday evening. With 88 percent of precincts reporting, Sanders was the projected winner by a landslide with 47 percent of delegates.
With 21 percent of delegates, Biden’s runner-up finish in Nevada comes after the first two primaries painted a picture of a campaign on life support. NBC News projected Biden would come in second late Sunday.
Pete Buttigieg, who came in a strong second in New Hampshire, trailed Biden with 13.7 percent of delegates. Sen. Elizabeth Warren came in fourth with 9.6 percent of delegates.
While he’s projected to come in second with less than half the percent of delegates that Sanders racked up Saturday, Biden was cheerful while addressing supporters Saturday in the state as NBC News and ABC News both called the race for Sanders.
“I think we’re in a position now to move on in a way that we haven’t been until this moment,” he said, touting the support he’s expected to receive in South Carolina next week. “I don’t know the final results yet, but I feel really good. You put me in a position, you know, the press is ready to declare people dead quickly. But we’re alive, we’re coming back and we’re going to win.”
Biden speakers to supporters in Nevada pic.twitter.com/iBY5cz2is2
— TPM Livewire (@TPMLiveWire) February 23, 2020
Biden’s campaign has maintained for weeks that the former vice president would enjoy better turnout in states with more diverse populations and compared to Iowa and New Hampshire. Nevada is the most diverse state yet to hold its primary election, with a high concentration of Latino, African American and Pacific Islander voters.
Biden is likely banking on his strong favorability in South Carolina to reignite his presidential campaign. Before the first two primaries, the former vice president was widely considered the 2020 frontrunner, by pundits and President Trump alike. But after a flop in Iowa and a pitiful fifth place finish in New Hampshire — where he didn’t even stay in the state to await the results — that status was increasingly downgraded by the media.
Biden still has a very plausible shot, IMHO. But a great deal rides on his showing in South Carolina. A relatively big win there – which, grading on a curve, I’d define as at least a 5 point lead over Bernie – could propel Biden into being perceived as the clear leader among non-Bernie candidate on Super Tuesday, and possibly bring supporters defecting from other candidates to his side.
One interesting wrinkle is it’s only 3 days from South Carolina to Super Tuesday. I’m not sure if this is an impediment for a Biden Comeback, or an advantage for him.
On the one hand, it doesn’t leave him as much time to raise money and recruit volunteers and in general gives him less time to make good use of the positive media narrative of a potential South Carolina bump.
On the other hand, that also means less time for the narrative to change again for some reason, which means more chance that a “Biden Comeback” narrative would still be a dominant narrative on Super Tuesday.
So I’m not sure how that factor shakes out, maybe helpful to Biden, maybe not. But I do think a big Biden victory in South Carolina gives him a real shot at the nomination, and since there seems like a decent chance he actually achieves that in South Carolina, he is, as the headline above accurately sums it up, “still in the hunt.”
Conversely, a weak win for Biden with a very close Bernie second-place finish in South Carolina – with the accompanying narrative “Biden narrowly wins, but underperforms, is that enough to keep him alive?” – would reduce the chances of a Biden Comeback substantially. And of course a Bernie win in South Carolina could be the death knell for Biden’s campaign,
So I don’t think it’s overly dramatic to say South Carolina probably determines Biden’s fate in this race. A lot riding on the outcome there, to say the least!
Sorry, but he is Joe Bydone now. Elizabeth Warren just vaulted into second in the first national poll post Nevada debate still 10 points behind Sanders but ahead of Biden. What it confirms to me is that the country is becoming comfortable with the Progressive agenda and the centrism, which is really “republican lite” is fading. Joe may hang on in SC (which will never vote for a D in the general) especially if Clyburn endorses him in a triage effort. But unless Biden takes some kind of debate steroid on Wednesday, it’s not going to blunt Sanders and a reinvigorated Warren from returning the Democratic Party to the Democrats.
Bernie self-immolating on 60 Minutes. Can’t come soon enough. Praise for Fidel Castro. Continues to be coy and dismissive about how much single payer will cost. Gets even more cranky and dismissive about questions about other pie in the sky programs.
Nominating Bernie Sanders is political Hari kari. Don’t do it.
It wasn’t pretty, but Biden got a lot done in NV. He basically eliminated the Klobuchar and Steyer campaigns. He mortally wounded Buttigieg and Pete will get wiped out in SC. That goes a long way to clearing the field in the South. He has to win SC by as big a margin as he can and then he has to figure out how to convince voters not to vote for Bloomberg and consolidate behind his candidacy.
So a 5 point win after blowing a 30 point lead is “relatively big”? Wish I had professors grading on y our curve back in the day?