In a further sign that national Democrats are worried about the special election in Hawaii’s First District, the Democratic National Committee is circulating a private poll making it clear that Ed Case, one of the two Democratic candidates splitting the vote, is the more electable choice over fellow Dem Colleen Hanabusa.
The numbers, among likely voters: Republican Charles Djou 36%, Case 34%, and Hanabusa 20%. The TPM Poll Average has Djou ahead with 32.3%, Case with 32.0%, and Hanabusa at 21.8%. A Democratic source has confirmed the authenticity of the poll to TPMDC.
From the pollster’s analysis: “The bottom line is that with a split-Democratic vote, this congressional is more likely than not to fall into Republican hands. Ed Case is the only candidate who can beat Charles Djou in this multi-candidate special election in May.”
The pollster’s analysis finds Case the single most popular with 63% favorable and 24% unfavorable, followed by Djou at 55%-29% — and Hanabusa with only a 41%-43% rating. The analysis also argues that Case is not simply the Dems’ best hope under the circumstances of this special election, but that he would be more electable than Hanabusa under normal circumstances, too: “Indeed, in a series of hypothetical 2-way races, Case beats Djou by 47% to 39% and Case bests Hanabusa by 61% to 23%. But Djou beats Hanabusa by 48% to 38%.”
Hawaii special elections for the House do not work like they usually do in other states, where candidates either compete in separate party primaries, or the parties select their candidates through an internal party committee process. Instead, a single-round election is held in which all the candidates appear together on one ballot, and the plurality-winner takes the whole thing. The election is being conducted entirely by mail, and will end on May 22. As a result of the split Democratic vote, the party could very well end up losing a district that President Obama carried with 70% of the vote in 2008.
