Democrats and the White House are pointing to a lesser noticed special election in southwestern Pennsylvania today, saying that result will have far more import than the results of contentious party primaries statewide there and in Arkansas and Kentucky. Republican Tim Burns and Democrat Mark Critz are locked in a close battle to replace the late Rep. John Murtha (D-PA) in the 12th Congressional district. If Democrats keep that seat in a battleground district, they think that bodes well for this fall.
Murtha held the seat for more than three decades, weathering multiple challenges. It was the only district that voted narrowly for John Kerry in 2004 (51%-49%) but which Barack Obama lost in 2008 by less than one percentage point. Al Gore handily won the district in 2000.
“If the bottom were really falling out the GOP should be walking away with this race,” a Democrat close to the White House told me. Given the district demographics, the tough year for the majority party and the president’s diminished approval ratings, Republicans have a great chance at a pickup, the source said. “Even if it’s close it’s a good sign for us.”
That’s one of those rules of politics — if you think you’re going to win something, make sure you say repeatedly that the other side has everything in place to score a victory. Case in point — the DNC’s Brad Woodhouse today sent reporters a link to this video starring former Rep. Tom Davis (R-VA) declaring the district is “exactly” the type the GOP needs to capture if they want to retake the majority in November.
“They should win this election today,” Davis said in the MSNBC interview. “If the Republicans don’t win this I think they have to look mechanically at what they’re doing.”
The hotly contested statewide Democratic primary between Sen. Arlen Specter and Rep. Joe Sestak will drive up turnout, a boost given normally depressed turnout for a special election, and one that will potentially favor the Democrats. The Democratic National Committee organized phone banks for Critz all weekend and volunteers have flooded the district in recent weeks to help keep the seat. Former President Bill Clinton stumped for Critz over the weekend.
Other Democrats are sounding pretty confident.
“People really think he’s got it,” Sestak said of Critz in an interview with me last night.
The DCCC issued a memo last night noting that the race is “the only Republican vs. Democratic election” held today and citing multiple pundits who label the district a “must-win.”
From the memo:
The NRCC has spent $958,897 – one tenth of their cash on hand – and nine (9) shady outside groups have spent more than $445,000 to defeat Democrat Mark Critz. Republican Committee Chairman Michael Steele guaranteed victory for Republican Tim Burns.
PA-12 is the only district in the country that Senator Kerry won and President Obama lost. According to non-partisan political independent analysts, PA-12 is exactly the type of district that House Republicans need to win this cycle.
By all accounts it’s looking to be a close race. The TPM Poll Average has Burns with 43.0 percent compared with 42.4 percent for Critz.
