A new poll from The Hill finds that Republicans could pick up a seat that has been in Democratic hands for 41 years — the northern Wisconsin district of retiring Democratic Rep. Dave Obey. According to their poll, Republican prosecutor and former Real World star Sean Duffy has a lead of nine points over Democratic state Sen. Julie Lassa.
The numbers: Duffy 44%, Lassa 35%. The survey of likely voters has a ±4.9% margin of error. The poll was conducted by Penn Schoen Berland, and there is no previous survey of this district from them for direct comparison.
Obey first won the seat in a 1969 special election, and has consistently won re-election with over 60% for many years. However, underneath that surface the district is often a swing seat for the presidential vote, and closely matches Wisconsin’s overall leanings. And given that the polls in Wisconsin this year have often shown a serious enthusiasm gap dragging down the Democratic numbers, it shouldn’t be too surprising to see this seat on the line.
