Heading into the home stretch of the Nevada Senate race, a pattern seems to have emerged from all the available public polling: After narrowly trailing Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid during the summer, Republican nominee Sharron Angle has pulled ahead — but only narrowly, as the race remains tight.
After Angle won the Republican primary in June, there was a widespread consensus that GOP voters had picked their weakest candidate, and that Reid’s once-moribund re-election chances –Â a problem due in large part to the lousy economy –Â had drastically improved. Stories circulated widely about Angle’s various far-right positions, most notably her discussion of “Second Amendment remedies” to Democratic policies, a possible call for violent revolution that she backed away from.
This all had an effect: Beginning in July, Reid took narrow leads in all the polls. However many recent surveys have against shown Angle taking a lead again.
As one example, Rasmussen now has Angle ahead 50%-47%, after Reid had led by 48%-47% in late September. Mason-Dixon gives Angle a lead of 48%-46%, compared to a 46%-44% Reid edge in early September. On the other hand, Public Policy Polling (D) had Reid ahead by 49%-48%. The polls are all fairly close together, of course, but for the most part Angle has been ahead in the most recent surveys. She’s led (narrowly) in seven of the eight public polls released in October. As a result, the TPM Poll Average currently gives her an edge of 48.5%-47.4%.
Of course, anything can happen in these final two weeks. For example, Angle is currently being lampooned in the media for her statements to a group of Hispanic students, denying that the Latinos in her negative ads are Latinos, and wondering if some of the Latino audience members were Asian. Who knows, that might affect the next polls to come out. But for now, she is narrowly ahead.
