As New Hampshire goes, so goes the nation. Well, not always, but winning the state’s presidential primary usually gives a candidate a big leg up as they seek their party’s nomination.
A new Magellan poll has some great news for Mitt Romney then, as it indicates that if the Republican primary were held today, the former Massachusetts Governor would win in a blowout.
In the poll of New Hampshire Republicans and Independents, both of whom can vote in the state’s GOP primary, Romney drew over twice as much support as the next most popular potential candidate, Sarah Palin. Thirty-nine percent of respondents said they would vote for Romney if the election were held today, compared to 16% who said their top choice was Palin. Mike Huckabee came in third in the poll at 10%, followed by Newt Gingrich at 8%.
Aside from those four candidates–considered to be the front runners for the party nod–the poll also tested Texas Rep. Ron Paul (7%), former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty (4%), former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum (3%) and Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour (1%.)
Romney likely got a home field boost in the poll, having served one term, from 2003-2007, as Governor of neighboring Massachusetts. Romney’s 73% favorability rating among primary voters was well above Palin’s 59% favorability, and Huckabee’s 55%.
Though New Hampshire doesn’t award many nominating delegates, the state’s first-in-the-nation primary makes it a huge prize for presidential hopefuls. The enormous media attention on the race can vault a relative unknown to national prominence, or shape the winner as the candidate to beat. In 2008, a win in New Hampshire reversed John McCain’s fortunes en route to his nomination, leading the New York Times to write that he had “revived his presidential bid with a Lazarus-like win.”
Of course it’s still very early — the New Hampshire primary is still more than a year away.
The Magellan poll was conducted January 4 among 1,451 Republican primary voters. It has a margin of error of 2.57%.
