Quinnipiac released new numbers on possible matchups in the 2012 Presidential race on Thursday, showing President Obama ahead of all of possible challengers except for former Mass Gov. Mitt Romney, who bests Obama by three in Florida, comes within three points in Ohio and one in Pennsylvania, all statistical ties.
Florida gives the President the most trouble at the moment — Romney leads him but the other GOP challengers come close in the sunshine state, with businessman Herman Cain down by four, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich behind three and Texas Gov. Rick Perry six. But in Ohio and Pennsylvania Obama has a double digit lead on all challengers not named Romney.
Public Policy Polling (D) released a survey on Wednesday showing Obama way up on his Republican foes in Ohio, including Romney by nine points. But the Quinnipiac surveys paint a much more traditional picture of the swing states, showing that the perceived mainstream Republican in Romney can do very well against the President in the classic battlegrounds.
“His [Obama’s] wide lead over most of the field and his neck-and-neck race with Romney show that the dissatisfaction with the president as evidenced by his mid-40s percent job approval and weak ‘deserves a second term’ ratings hasn’t translated into affection for his GOP challengers,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute in a release.
But in general, Quinnpiac threw cold water on the numbers in Ohio and PA, as the President is still well below 50 percent in both states:
“In Pennsylvania, where Obama got his biggest win of the three swing states in 2008, he does no better against the GOP challengers,” said Brown. “He won the Keystone State by double digits in 2008. But, even here his job approval ratings have been in the mid-40s or lower most of the year. Few expect that same double-digit margin if he carries the state next November…Although the data currently shows Ohio to be winnable for the president, there are many — including some top Democrats — who think it will be a tough job because the state is home to large numbers of blue-collar whites among whom Obama has always had problems.”
The Quinnipiac polls used live telephone interviews conducted from October 31st to November 7th, containing 1,185 Florida voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percent,
1,312 Ohio voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percent, and 1,436 Pennsylvania voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percent.
